大摩AI主題投資研報: "當我們進入2025年時, 讓我們獲得超額報酬的電力股"

大摩AI主題投資研報"Powering GenAI: US Alpha Generation as We Head into 2025(當我們進入2025年時, 讓我們獲得超額報酬的電力股)". (報告日期: 12/03/2024)

1. In this note we include a number of analyses regarding the growth of AI power infrastructure, some of them esoteric. It is easy to lose sight of the big drivers of alpha regarding Powering GenAI in the US — and these drivers are fairly straightforward and very large. There will in our view be a significant shortfall in available US power grid access relative to the magnitude of new data centers needed to "absorb" the AI equipment purchases over the next several years, with the bottleneck becoming apparent in mid- to late 2025.

(在本文中，我們納入了一些有關人工智慧電力基礎設施成長的分析，其中一些是深奧的。人們很容易忽略在美國推動 GenAI 發展的重要驅動因素 —而其實這些驅動因素相當直接明瞭且規模非常大。我們認為，相對於未來幾年, 新資料中心所需要的人工智慧設備購買數量而言，美國現有的電網設施將出現嚴重短缺, 而這一瓶頸將在 2025 年中後期顯現出來。)

圖一是目前的瓶頸: 

而圖二是可能的解決方案: 

2. We believe the consensus view is not sufficiently bullish regarding the value creation opportunity for companies that can provide "time to power" solutions for data centers.

大摩認為, 目前的共識中, 對於那些能夠及時提供電力方案的公司, 還不夠被看好(也就是, 大摩認為這些公司的股價還有上行空間.)

3. While we have developed a wide range of company-specific analyses regarding the potential upside by providing the infrastructure required for the growth in GenAI, for investors interested in a more comprehensive, thematic, quantitative approach, we believe Morgan Stanley's proprietary options-driven probability tool can be extremely helpful.

(雖然我們針對AI電力相關股開發了一連串的分析, 但我們認為, 從選擇權的情況, 來看個股上行空間的可能性, 極為有幫助. )

下圖是大摩透過這方式後, 所找出的最有漲幅潛力的個股: 

4. We continue to see the conversion of Bitcoin mining sites to HPC data centers as a viable "de-bottlenecking" solution, but a rising price of Bitcoin may reduce actionable capacity and increase the cost of conversion.

(我們可能會看到比特幣挖礦中心被改成支援數據中心, 成為解決瓶頸的方案.)

但是如果比特幣的價格升高, 則會讓此現象減少. 而如果他們選擇不這樣做的話, CEG, VST, TLN, BE則會受益(前三者會是最大受益者).

以下是比特幣挖礦公司的個股的估值: 

A few takeaways from the above exhibit: (i) We would expect these multiples to decline as consensus EBITDA estimates for these stocks to increase for 2025, driven by the recent rise in the price of Bitcoin, and (ii) these multiples are much lower than those for data center REIT stocks — DLR trades at ~25.9x NTM EV/EBITDA, and EQIX trades at ~24.7x NTM EV/EBITDA

5. We may see increasing "off grid" approaches to powering data centers.

我們可能會看到越來越多用離網的方式來替數據中心發電. 加州(相關個股: BE)跟德州(相關個股: GEV, CMI, CAT)會是兩個可能的市場.

6. We believe we may see a "bridge" approach to data center development, in which temporary, mobile generation is deployed in order to address "additionality" requirements.

我們可能會看到在數據中心的發展上, 出現了暫時的銜接方案: 移動式的發電方式.

這項策略面臨的最大挑戰是採購各種天然氣渦輪機所需要的越來越長的時間。這可能會導致進一步渦輪機製造能力的擴大(加上潛在的利潤率較高的銷售合約)，而利潤率將有利於現場發電交貨時間較短的技術(例如 Bloom Energy 的燃料電池)。

7. In the US, we could see a widening divergence in degrees of "strict additionality" required by different power sector regulators - and we believe this requirement will limit the extent to which existing, operational natural gas-fired power plants may serve as "de-bottlenecking" solutions over the next few years.

(在美國，我們可以看到不同電力產業監管機構對「嚴格額外性」的要求程度差異越來越大——我們認為，這項要求將限制現有營運的天然氣發電廠作為「替代能源」的程度。)

在有嚴格額外性要求的地區, 受惠美股有: BE, GEV, CMI, CAT.

在沒有嚴格額外性要求的地區, 受惠美股: NEE, AES, CEG, 小型模組反應爐(OKLO, SMR, RR, and NNE).

8. We expect to see a growth surge in decarbonization solutions to help hyperscalers achieve their carbon reduction goals, and many of these companies have received little investor interest to date.

大摩預期會看到脫碳解決方案的興起(因為要幫超大規模運算中心達到他們減少碳排放量的目標.)

相關美股: AES Corp. (AES), NextEra Energy (NEE), First Solar (FSLR), GE Vernova (GEV).

9. We believe we will see significant demand for new natural gas–fired power generation and related infrastructure.

(大摩相信, 我們會到對新的天然氣發電及相關基礎建設的重大需求.)

“當我們查看美國和世界各地的數據中心發展的數據熱點時，我們看到了, 不少的熱點, 是在天然氣有優惠政策支持的地區(如, 德州有一個補貼貸款計劃，這將鼓勵該州建造更多的天然氣發電廠。)

相關美股:

(A) natural gas power generation equipment manufacturers - GE Vernova (GEV)

(B) US natural gas players benefiting from increased demand — our US Energy team sees EQT (EQT), Antero Resources (AR), Energy Transfer (ET), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Williams (WMB).

10. We also see increased demand for new nuclear power, especially Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and large new reactors. (大摩看到對新核能電廠的需求, 尤其是小型模組反應爐, 以及大型的新反應爐.)

—NVIDIA CEO曾說: “nuclear power is a "good option for the renewable energy needed for the growing number of data centers."

—大摩認為, 小型模組反應爐仍然會是下個十年的科技(SMRs will remain a next decade technology), even in light of the demand for "additionality."

11. We're still bullish power prices. (大摩認為電價還有上漲的可能.)

副件: AI infrastructure value chain (AI基礎建設價值鏈)

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