新加坡總理：中日必須緩和緊張，拋開歷史。
Now on Japan and China, uh we all want stability in Asia.
現在在日本和中國，呃，我們都希望亞洲保持穩定。
00:04
I mean that's of course something we it's in everyone's interest.
我的意思當然這是每個人都感興趣的事。
00:08
So we certainly hope that both countries will find ways to deescalate the current issue.
所以我們當然希望兩國能找到緩和目前爭端的方式。
00:14
The China Japan relationship is important.
中日關係很重要。
00:17
Economically it's important.
在經濟上它也很重要。
00:18
China is Japan's largest trading partner.
中國是日本最大的貿易伙伴。
00:21
But it's a complex relationship partly because of the US China strategic competition.
但這是個複雜的關係，部分原因在於美中戰略競爭。
00:26
So everything that China and Japan has is seen through that larger prism.
因此中日所擁有的一切都會被放在那個更大光譜中來看待。
00:31
They also have disputes in the Senakapu Islands.
他們在尖閣列島也存在爭端。
00:34
And of course it's also because of the overhang of the history of the Second World War which still remains between the two countries.
當然，這也與第二次世界大戰遺留的歷史包袱有關，至今仍在兩國之間存在。
00:44
We hope the two countries will find ways to resolve these very complex issues and move forward.
我們希望兩國能找到解決這些極其複雜問題的方法，並向前邁進。
00:49
Southeast Asia has done that with Japan.
東南亞已經與日本這樣做過。
00:52
As far as the history is concerned, it has taken some time, but with the passage of time, with the passing of generations, the feelings are not the same.
就歷史而言，確實花了一些時間，但隨著時間的推移、世代的更迭，感受已經不同了。
01:02
And we have put the history aside and we're moving forward.
我們已把歷史放在一旁，正向前邁進。
01:05
And it's quite striking that survey after survey shows that Japan is the number one trusted great power in Southeast Asia.
相當令人震驚的是，多份民調都顯示日本是東南亞最值得信任的強國第一位。
02:40
>> So far, you've been right >> and our views remain the same.
>> 到目前為止，你說對了 >> 我們的觀點仍然不變。
02:45
It is an important issue for China, Taiwan.
對中國與台灣來說，是一個重要議題。
02:48
It is the readers of red lines.
這是牽動紅線的讀者。
02:51
But I don't see and we don't see it happening unless something happens that really crosses China's red lines in terms of for example a unilateral move by Taiwan.
但我看不到，也只有真正越過中國紅線、例如台灣單方面行動時，情況才會發生改變。
03:04
Yes.
是的。
03:04
>> To declare independence because then it becomes two China not one China.
>> 宣布獨立，因而就成為兩個中國，而不是一個中國。
03:10
I think America's policy here also is very critical and America has always been consistent and very careful with its policy that there should not be any unilateral change to the status quo.
我認為美國在這裡的政策也非常關鍵，美國一向立場一致、十分謹慎，並明確表示任何對現狀的單方面改變都不應該發生。
03:22
And number two, that while America defends or supports Taiwan's ability to defend itself, it does so in accordance to the Taiwan Relations Act and to America's one China policy.
另外，雖然美國捍衛或支持台灣自我防衛的能力，但這是依據《台灣關係法》以及美國的一中政策來進行。
03:34
It's a very carefully crafted statement and up to now across different administrations, America has broadly speaking maintained a consistent uh approach with that policy.
這是一份經過極其審慎撰寫的聲明，至今在不同政府期間，美國大體上保持對該政策的一致性。
03:49
And if it does so, I think there will be a good chance of us maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits.
如果他們如此行動，我認為台灣海峽地區維持和平穩定的機會將會更大。
🌏 General & Diplomatic Vocabulary
- stability in Asia = 亞洲的穩定
- in everyone’s interest = 符合所有人的利益
- deescalate the issue = 緩和爭端／降低緊張
- complex relationship = 複雜的關係
- strategic competition = 戰略競爭
- larger prism = 更大的框架／角度來看
- disputes in the Senkaku Islands = 尖閣列島爭端
- history overhang = 歷史包袱
📈 Economic & Political Terms
- largest trading partner = 最大的貿易夥伴
- economic importance = 經濟上的重要性
- pragmatic interaction = 務實的互動
- trusted great power = 值得信任的強國
🕊️ Conflict & Resolution
- resolve complex issues = 解決複雜問題
- move forward = 向前邁進
- put history aside = 把歷史放在一旁
- red lines = 紅線（不可觸碰的底線）
- unilateral move = 單方面行動
- declare independence = 宣布獨立
- status quo = 現狀
- carefully crafted statement = 經過審慎撰寫的聲明
- consistent approach = 一致的做法
- peace and stability = 和平與穩定
✨ Phrases for Speaking
- “We all want stability in Asia.”
- “It’s in everyone’s interest.”
- “China is Japan’s largest trading partner.”
- “Survey after survey shows…” = 一再的民調顯示
- “There should not be any unilateral change to the status quo.”
Dialogue Points and Regional Stability Outlook
📚 講座筆記：日本、中國與亞洲區域穩定
1) 總覽 (Overview)
- 目標： 了解亞洲的穩定動態，重點關注中日關係及其對區域的影響。
- 關鍵主題：
- 亞洲穩定對所有相關方的重要性。
- 日本作為東南亞潛在穩定力量的角色。
- 在中美戰略競爭的大背景下，中日關係的定位。
- 歷史遺留問題（第二次世界大戰）和近期爭端（如：釣魚台/尖閣諸島爭議）。
- 台灣問題作為一個潛在爆發點，以及美國政策的角色。
- 基調： 強調降溫、對話，並在可能的情況下，超越過去的緊張局勢，邁向合作。
Lecture Notes: Japan, China, and Regional Stability in Asia
1) Overview
- Objective: Understand the stability dynamics in Asia focusing on Japan–China relations and regional implications.
- Key themes:
- Importance of stability in Asia for all parties.
- The role of Japan as a potential stabilizing force in Southeast Asia.
- The China–Japan relationship within the broader US–China strategic rivalry.
- Historical legacies (World War II) and recent disputes (Senkaku Islands).
- Taiwan issue as a flashpoint and the role of U.S. policy.
- Tone: Emphasis on de-escalation, dialogue, and moving beyond past tensions toward collaboration where possible.
2) 中日關係：為何重要 (Japan–China Relationship: Why it matters)
- 經濟紐帶： 中國是日本最大的貿易夥伴。
- 即使存在爭端，經濟層面的聯繫使得合作對雙方互利。
- 戰略層面： 兩國關係在中美戰略競爭的視角下被審視。
- 儘管存在潛在的緊張局勢，但兩國對於穩定有共同的利益。
- 歷史背景： 第二次世界大戰歷史對當前關係的持久影響。
- 隨著時間推移，代際變遷可能會緩解部分歷史敏感性。
2) Japan–China Relationship: Why it matters
- Economic ties:
- China is Japan’s largest trading partner.
- The economic dimension makes cooperation mutually beneficial, even amid disputes.
- Strategic dimension:
- The relationship is viewed through the lens of the US–China strategic competition.
- Shared interest in stability despite underlying tensions.
- Historical context:
- The enduring impact of the Second World War history on current relations.
- Over time, generational shifts may ease some historical sensitivities.
3) 區域背景：東南亞與日本的角色 (Regional Context: Southeast Asia and Japan’s role)
- 東南亞情緒： 調查顯示，日本在該地區是一個值得信賴且具有影響力的國家。
- 包括新加坡在內的東南亞國家，支持日本扮演更重要的角色，包括在安全領域。
- 實際意義： 日本加強參與被視為有助於區域穩定。
- 重要細微差別： 這種支持與東南亞國家對中日摩擦的小心處理並存。
3) Regional Context: Southeast Asia and Japan’s role
- Southeast Asian sentiment:
- Surveys show Japan as a trusted and influential power in the region.
- Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore, support Japan taking a larger role—also in security.
- Practical implication:
- Japan’s enhanced involvement is seen as contributing to regional stability.
- Important nuance:
- This support exists alongside careful handling of China–Japan frictions.
4) 中日關係中的關鍵議題 (Key Issues in Japan–China Relations)
- 領土爭議： 釣魚台/尖閣諸島爭議仍是緊張的焦點。
- 歷史遺產： 第二次世界大戰的歷史宿怨持續影響著雙方的觀感和言論。
- 降溫路徑： 重點在於降低緊張局勢、穩定關係並避免升級。
4) Key Issues in Japan–China Relations
- Territorial disputes:
- Senkaku Islands dispute remains a point of tension.
- Historical legacies:
- Historical grievances from World War II continue to color perceptions and rhetoric.
- Path to de-escalation:
- The emphasis on reducing tensions, stabilizing the relationship, and avoiding escalation.
5) 關於更明智政策選擇的辯論與觀點 (Debates and Perspectives on Wiser Policy Choices)
- 疑問： 挑釁行為（例如：聲明或示威活動）是否明智？
- 對領導層行動的智慧判斷存在不確定性。
- 承認言論一出，覆水難收；重點轉向降溫和穩定。
- 共識觀點： 雙方都有避免進一步升級的利益。
- 日本方面被視為旨在穩定關係；希望中國也抱持相同的目標。
5) Debates and Perspectives on Wiser Policy Choices
- Question: Is provocative action (e.g., statements or demonstrations) advisable?
- The response indicates uncertainty about judging the wisdom of leadership actions.
- Acknowledgment that once said, statements can’t be unsaid; focus shifts to de-escalation and stabilization.
- Consensus view:
- Both sides have an interest in preventing further escalation.
- The Japanese side is seen as aiming to stabilize; there is hope China shares that goal.
6) 台灣問題與衝突風險 (The Taiwan Question and the Risk of Conflict)
- 戰爭可能性： 講者普遍認為，中國在近期內單方面、無端發動戰爭的可能性不高。
- 對台戰爭不被視為迫在眉睫，但局勢仍高度敏感。
- 紅線與觸發點： 中國在台灣問題上的「紅線」，特別是台灣單方面走向獨立的舉動，可能會改變局勢（「兩個中國」或現狀危機）。
- 美國政策核心原則： 美國不應支持單方面改變台灣現狀的行為。
- 美國政策重點：
- 根據《台灣關係法》，支持台灣的自我防衛能力。
- 堅持一中政策框架。
- 強調美國政策在不同政府間的一致性，這被視為穩定的力量。
6) The Taiwan Question and the Risk of Conflict
- Likelihood of war:
- The speakers generally regard unilateral, unprovoked action by China as unlikely in the near term.
- War over Taiwan is not viewed as imminent, but the situation remains sensitive.
- Red lines and triggers:
- China’s “red lines” on Taiwan, particularly a unilateral move toward independence, could change the dynamic (“two Chinas” or a crisis of status quo).
- U.S. policy core principles:
- The United States should not support unilateral changes to the Taiwan status quo.
- U.S. policy centers on:
- Taiwan’s self-defense capability under the Taiwan Relations Act.
- The One China policy framework.
- The consistency of U.S. policy across administrations is emphasized as stabilizing.
7) 關鍵結論 (Key Conclusions)
- 亞洲穩定對所有利益相關者（包括東南亞國家、日本、中國和美國）都有利。
- 中日關係儘管複雜，但在避免升級和追求建設性接觸方面有共同利益。
- 歷史遺留問題和當前爭端（如：尖閣諸島、二戰遺產）必須透過對話和降溫來管理，以邁向實際合作。
- 日本在區域安全中日益增強的作用，被東南亞廣泛支持，視為穩定的屏障。
- 台灣仍然是一個潛在的爆發點；維持現狀和美國的謹慎態度被視為區域和平的關鍵。
7) Key Conclusions
- Stability in Asia benefits all stakeholders, including Southeast Asian countries, Japan, China, and the United States.
- The China–Japan relationship, while complex, has a shared interest in avoiding escalation and pursuing constructive engagement.
- Historical grievances and current disputes (e.g., Senkaku, WWII legacy) must be managed through dialogue and de-escalation to move toward practical cooperation.
- Japan’s growing role in regional security is widely supported in Southeast Asia as a bulwark for stability.
- Taiwan remains a potential flashpoint; maintaining the status quo and a careful U.S. approach are viewed as critical to regional peace.
8) 範例與說明要點 (Examples and Illustrative Points)
- 範例：東南亞對日本的公眾情緒： 反覆的調查顯示，日本是該地區最受信任的強權，反映出對日本穩定影響力的信心。
- 範例：台灣政策一致性： 美國的立場包括支持台灣的自我防衛，以《台灣關係法》和一中政策為指導，長期目標是避免單方面改變現狀。
8) Examples and Illustrative Points
- Example: Public sentiment in Southeast Asia toward Japan:
- Repeated surveys show Japan as the most trusted great power in the region, reflecting confidence in Japan’s stabilizing influence.
- Example: Taiwan policy alignment:
- U.S. stance includes support for Taiwan’s self-defense, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act and the One China policy, with a long-standing aim to avoid unilateral changes to the status quo.
9) 對未來研究的啟示 (Implications for Further Study)
- 如何衡量中日之間在降溫方面的進展（超越口頭言論）。
- 日本在區域安全架構（聯盟、多邊論壇）中不斷演變的角色。
- 美國政策轉變對東亞穩定的影響，特別是在台灣和兩岸關係方面。
- 人口結構和歷史變遷對東南亞對日本和中國看法的影響。
9) Implications for Further Study
- How to measure progress in de-escalation between Japan and China beyond rhetoric.
- The evolving role of Japan in regional security architectures (alliances, multilateral forums).
- The impact of U.S. policy shifts on East Asian stability, particularly regarding Taiwan and cross-strait relations.
- The effects of demographic and historical shifts on perceptions of Japan and China in Southeast Asia.
10) 總結 (Conclusion)
- 總體目標是透過降溫、謹慎外交和主要區域參與者的平衡領導，實現亞洲的穩定。
- 雖然挑戰依然存在（領土爭議、歷史記憶、大國競爭），但各方在維持和平與經濟合作方面有共同利益。
- 美國、日本、中國和東南亞國家都在塑造穩定的區域未來中扮演著至關重要的角色。
10) Conclusion
- The overarching goal is stability in Asia, achieved through de-escalation, careful diplomacy, and balanced leadership from major regional players.
- While challenges persist (territorial disputes, historical memory, great-power competition), there is a shared interest in maintaining peace and economic cooperation.
- The United States, Japan, China, and Southeast Asian nations each play a crucial role in shaping a stable regional future.
