經濟學人世界新聞簡訊 - 2023/9/27

俄羅斯經濟復甦：從危機中走出的韌性

去年，由於西方政府為回應俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭而施加了前所未有的制裁，俄羅斯經濟面臨嚴重威脅。但高油價、高天然氣價格和央行控制通脹的努力使俄羅斯經濟免於災難。週三發布的GDP、零售銷售、工業生產和其他數據將表明，總統弗拉基米爾·普京在先週吹噓時是有道理的，他說“俄羅斯經濟的復甦階段已經結束”。

Last year Russia’s economy faced a severe threat, as Western governments piled on unprecedented sanctions in response to its invasion of Ukraine. But a combination of high prices for oil and gas and efforts by the central bank to crush inflation saved the economy from disaster. GDP, retail sales, industrial production and other data released on Wednesday will show that President Vladimir Putin has a point when he boasts, as he did last week, that “the recovery stage for the Russian economy is finished”.

失業率處於歷史最低水平，而GDP在實際值上可能比去年同期高出4%左右。工業生產正在快速增長。現在面臨的最大挑戰是通貨膨脹，儘管央行做出強有力努力控制通脹，但通脹仍然很高。最近幾個月油價疲軟導致盧布貶值，提高了進口成本。但與18個月前的狀況相比，俄羅斯經濟看起來很強勁。

The unemployment rate is at an all-time low, while GDP is probably 4% or so higher in real terms than it was this time last year. Industrial production is rising smartly. The big challenge now is inflation, which remains high despite the central bank’s strong efforts to control it. Weak oil prices in recent months have depressed the value of the ruble, raising the cost of imports. But compared with how things seemed 18 months ago, Russia’s economy is looking robust.

俄羅斯經濟在面對西方制裁時出人意料地具有韌性。這在一定程度上是由於俄羅斯能夠找到新的市場來出口其石油和天然氣。

The Russian economy has been surprisingly resilient in the face of Western sanctions. This is due in part to the fact that Russia has been able to find new markets for its oil and gas exports.

然而，俄羅斯經濟仍然面臨一些挑戰，包括通貨膨脹、高利率和外國投資短缺。

However, the Russian economy is still facing a number of challenges, including inflation, high interest rates, and a shortage of foreign investment.

制裁對俄羅斯經濟的長期影響仍然不確定。有可能制裁最終會對經濟產生更大影響，但也有可能俄羅斯能夠適應新的環境。

The long-term impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy is still uncertain. It is possible that the sanctions will eventually have a more significant impact on the economy, but it is also possible that Russia will be able to adapt to the new environment.

_{Sources: https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief
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