逐字稿分享 _ Gooaye 股癌_2020/03/03_EP4 ¦ GE Jack Welch 逝世 美股最大反彈

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逐字稿內容：

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歡迎收聽股癌的線上節目第四集

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我是謝孟恭

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現在時間是3月3號的下午4點44分

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我們先講一下今天發生的大事

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Jack Welch過世了

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GE(奇異公司 General Electric Company)的前傳奇CEO

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他的管理故事跟找接班人的故事

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在網路上、在管理圈、在公司治理裡面

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都還一直在被盛傳著

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那他的經典形象是什麼呢

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可以從美國媒體給他的江湖魂號看得出來

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他們稱他為Neutron Jack

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中子彈捷克

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中子彈就是我打下去

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我不會破壞建築的本體

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可是我可以把裡面的人全部殺光光

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那這就跟Jack的做法很像

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他進入GE(奇異公司 General Electric Company)這個百年老店了

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就是大刀闊斧的改革

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首先他先把41萬個員工裁到的

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剩下23萬個

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反正效率至上就對了

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那組織改造的部分

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他把100多個事業體

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沒有效率的、沒有賺錢的

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砍一砍剩下20個不到

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300多個經營管理部門

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砍到剩下13個業務部門

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並且Jack還引進了一個叫做

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6個標準差

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6 sigma的良率改善措施

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把GE(奇異公司 General Electric Company)的品質

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改善成100萬個裡面

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只有3到4個不良品

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這就是這個源於Motorola的良率改善措施

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那在他離開GE(奇異公司 General Electric Company)的時候

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GE(奇異公司 General Electric Company)的營收已經成長了5倍

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市值成長了30倍

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從120億漲到驚人的4100億

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當時的美國企業界

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其實比較流行的是終身僱用這種感覺

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有點像是我們講的

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企業是你的家,照顧你到老

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所以他的做法算是比較異類

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他進去就是把沒有效率的所謂的冗員全部都砍光了

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當然以他的講法是講說

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我這個也是另外一種終身僱用

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因為你被我留下來的這些員工

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基本上你這輩子到其他公司去上班

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你都會是一個戰將

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你都會是一個人才

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所以也是實現了終身僱用

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那Jack Welch的經典故事

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就是包含他選接班人

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他自己被GE(奇異公司 General Electric Company)選為接班人

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跟他選後面的接班人

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他的一位嫡傳大弟子

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James McNerney雖然最後面沒有接管GE(奇異公司 General Electric Company)

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可是他跑去的3M

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光是他去的3M就激勵了3M的股價大幅上漲

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有沒有聽過這麼神奇的事情

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他一進去3M跟他師父一樣先砍人

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他砍了11%的員工

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並且加入了嚴格的績效考核

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還有也把6個標準差6sigma的管理方式給引進來

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當然這樣的做法原意是改善品質

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但後來很多人的想法是想說

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這個根本就是變成是Cost down

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省錢跟省時間

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反正就是一切效率至上省錢至上

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這個James McNerney到了3M

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他讓3M這家公司的資本支出大幅減少

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那也把營收給做了上來

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所以他們師徒其實都是

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我們講股東會喜歡的這種管理者角色

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比較嚴格的

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那當然員工的話皮就要繃很緊

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而這樣的管理做法也有正反面的討論

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比方說後來接James的3M下一任的CEO(George W. Buckley)就曾經提到說

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這樣的管理方法

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比如說我們在製造業裡面

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在GE、3M、James後來去的波音

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這種管理方法是有效的

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但3M是一個一創意為名的公司

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比方說他們發明了便利貼

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發明者Arthur Fry

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那他們就認為說這些創意的發想

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是在於說員工有餘裕的去思考其他事情

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才有辦法做到

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你沒有辦法跟我講說

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禮拜二要發明兩個東西

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禮拜三要發明幾個東西

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這樣壓著是做不到創意發想的

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他就做了一個舉例

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就是說今天講是有5000多個天馬行空的idea

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那本來的3M可能5000多個我都會來考慮看看

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那最後面可能選出一兩個

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可以有用的

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可以work到拿出來做

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不過在這樣的管理方式之下

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5000多個可能會以效率之上的前提之下

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就砍到了

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可能剩下不到一半

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因為他們只要所謂有用的東西

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那這樣子就很難跳脫框架去思考

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所以這樣的管理方式到目前

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都還是有正反面的辯論

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但我個人是覺得至少他是一個很傳奇的教材

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所以在這邊分享給大家

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那接下來我們聊一下

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昨天的美股漲了1300點

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史上最大的漲點

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帶動史上最大

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後來大家會越來越麻木

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隨著指數的推升

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未來你一定會看到更多的史上最大

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以前的1%是跌100點

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後來2萬點走1%就是200點

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那當然後來3萬4萬點

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道瓊會不會上5萬點

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我認為都是有機會的

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那未來的1%就會非常的驚人

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但是無論如何

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昨天是一個很大的反彈

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那台股今天

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你要說是被帶動

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或是說台股走自己

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因為台股最近看起來是沒有受到太大的

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這個世界股市的影響

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好像我們已經在開盤先跌過了

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所以我們後續的比較沒有跟跌的動作

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台股的加權指數漲了157點

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1.41%

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櫃台指數漲了1.39%

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都是不錯的反彈

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那我會一直講說這次的下跌

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跟18年貿易戰的下跌有根本上的差距

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是因為目前在檯面上

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還是有很多主流族群的存在

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跟18年那時候是通殺的狀況

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是有差的

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那時候通殺我們就可以講

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真的是進入一個空頭

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畢竟就是萬股齊跌

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可是目前我們不會很武斷的說

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他不會進入一個空頭

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可是至少你不要被嚇到

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如果你的持股走得好好的

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你幹嘛跟著大家去砍

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如果你發現有徵兆

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那再走也是OK的

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以台股目前的強勢族群來看

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我們昨天在板上有貼文

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就是有提醒大家三點

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第一點是3月會開始有股東會的召開通知

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所以會有回補潮的出現

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那你的空軍就會變成你有時間的壓力

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時間到了你就是得回補

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那第二點是提到說

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台股目前還是有主流題材

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我是舉例用CIS影像感測來說

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那提到的那支原相(3227.TWO)其實就是我的持股

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但是今天又大漲

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最高漲到200多了

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可是因為我這支我已經賣掉了

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我就是看看它而已

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那為什麼會賣掉呢

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其實不是因為不看好它

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單純是因為資金的問題

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如果我今天有10億元的話

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那我抱20張原相(3227.TWO)絕對是沒有問題的

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但如果我資金沒有那麼多的話

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那可能它漲多了

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又符合我的出場條件

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我就會把它放出去

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去選擇更多基期比較低的

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才可能開始要起漲的公司

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但這樣的決定不一定是對的

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還是看後來怎麼發展

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以及自己的操作方式

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那原相(3227.TWO)這家公司呢

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它其實跟另外一家CIS

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我們等一下要提的同欣電(6271.TW)

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就有根本的差距

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它比較保守

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這家公司呢

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我追它也追了差不多一年

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那它在法說會的資料裡面

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它的財務長講話就是

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聽起來快睡著快睡著的

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然後並且都非常的保守

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像他講說對於第四季跟明年的預期

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就是應該不錯還可以

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就類似這樣淡淡的帶過

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結果原相(3227.TWO)開出來是70%-80%的YOY

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年增率營收年增率非常的驚人

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但是這就是他嘴巴

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還不錯

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聽起來最後面是變成是這樣子

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這就跟公司的治理的方式還是有關

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公司的企業的風格

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像我們接下來講的也是CIS相關

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原相(3227.TWO)是做晶片

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它其實還有很多很有題材的東西

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我們未來再慢慢聊

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現在先講CIS

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另外一家做CIS做封測的

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就是國巨集團陳泰銘的同欣電(6271.TW)

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那同欣電(6271.TW)這家公司

210

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它最近併了勝麗(6238)

211

00:08:13,399 --> 00:08:16,399

另外一家做車用CIS的公司

212

00:08:16,399 --> 00:08:18,399

那併了勝麗(6238)之後

213

00:08:18,399 --> 00:08:23,399

是每一股的勝麗(6238)可以轉1.22股的同欣電(6271.TW)

214

00:08:23,399 --> 00:08:27,399

所以你現在可以看到很多法人可能在這裡面做套利的動作

215

00:08:27,399 --> 00:08:29,399

那個籌碼你可能看不太懂

216

00:08:29,399 --> 00:08:30,399

反正總之他們在套利

217

00:08:30,399 --> 00:08:32,399

因為6月之後就要轉換了

218

00:08:32,399 --> 00:08:34,399

在併了勝麗(6238)之後

219

00:08:34,399 --> 00:08:38,399

同欣電(6271.TW)就會變成世界第三大的CIS封測廠

220

00:08:38,399 --> 00:08:42,399

那大家都知道CIS目前因為多鏡頭的趨勢

221

00:08:42,399 --> 00:08:43,399

還有智慧電動車

222

00:08:43,399 --> 00:08:44,399

它會裝很多鏡頭

223

00:08:44,399 --> 00:08:46,399

所以CIS的晶片非常的缺貨

224

00:08:46,399 --> 00:08:47,399

那以連帶的

225

00:08:47,399 --> 00:08:50,399

大家說可能連封測也會跟著漲價

226

00:08:50,399 --> 00:08:52,399

那就會受惠到同欣電(6271.TW)

227

00:08:52,399 --> 00:08:56,399

那同欣電(6271.TW)這家公司跟剛才前面提原相(3227.TWO)最大的差別就是

228

00:08:56,399 --> 00:08:58,399

同欣電(6271.TW)就是符合國巨集團一向的做法

229

00:08:58,399 --> 00:09:01,399

他們放非常多的新聞

230

00:09:01,399 --> 00:09:04,399

不過當然我不能很武斷的講說是公司派放的

231

00:09:04,399 --> 00:09:07,399

但總之它的新聞從來都沒有少過

232

00:09:07,399 --> 00:09:10,399

但是從來都沒有少過代表會就是大出貨嗎

233

00:09:10,399 --> 00:09:11,399

也未必

234

00:09:11,399 --> 00:09:13,399

因為至少這個產業看起來是還OK的

235

00:09:13,399 --> 00:09:15,399

所以大家也可以藉此觀察說

236

00:09:15,399 --> 00:09:17,399

好，有大量鎂光燈

237

00:09:17,399 --> 00:09:20,399

大家一般都講說這種就是要出貨的前兆

238

00:09:20,399 --> 00:09:23,399

那我們可以觀察看看同欣電(6271.TW)後來走勢會怎麼樣

239

00:09:23,399 --> 00:09:25,399

但至少現階段來看

240

00:09:25,399 --> 00:09:30,399

原相(3227.TWO)跟同欣電(6271.TW)你根本從它線圖上感覺不出來它有崩盤

241

00:09:30,399 --> 00:09:32,399

還是多頭走勢走得好好的

242

00:09:32,399 --> 00:09:35,399

最多就是區間的盤整在那邊彈而已

243

00:09:35,399 --> 00:09:38,399

那本坡的個股這樣子的走法很多

244

00:09:38,399 --> 00:09:41,399

所以跟18年最根本的差距就是這樣子

245

00:09:41,399 --> 00:09:43,399

18年是基本上大家一起下去

246

00:09:43,399 --> 00:09:45,399

今天的強勢股除此之外

247

00:09:45,399 --> 00:09:47,399

PCB也蠻強的

248

00:09:47,399 --> 00:09:50,399

一支是我們昨天提到的博智(8155.TWO)

249

00:09:50,399 --> 00:09:52,399

就是那個妹妹的案例

250

00:09:52,399 --> 00:09:54,399

放空我們講說希望他快點回補

251

00:09:54,399 --> 00:09:56,399

建議他回補啦

252

00:09:56,399 --> 00:09:58,399

畢竟操作還是看個人

253

00:09:58,399 --> 00:10:00,399

結果博智(8155.TWO)今天又再來一根漲停

254

00:10:00,399 --> 00:10:02,399

這題材還是很強啦

255

00:10:02,399 --> 00:10:06,399

他的PCB做的這個高層次版5G用版

256

00:10:06,399 --> 00:10:08,399

搭到了5G的題材

257

00:10:08,399 --> 00:10:14,399

外加現在在中國的PCB廠可能都會面臨到停工或是斷電的可能性

258

00:10:14,399 --> 00:10:16,399

那在台灣的博智(8155.TWO)呢

259

00:10:16,399 --> 00:10:17,399

因為他產能都在台灣

260

00:10:17,399 --> 00:10:18,399

所以相對的比較安全

261

00:10:18,399 --> 00:10:21,399

也獲得了法人跟投資人的青睞

262

00:10:21,399 --> 00:10:23,399

他漲得很兇

263

00:10:23,399 --> 00:10:25,399

這樣的強勢股真的不要去空他

264

00:10:25,399 --> 00:10:26,399

今天就是一個驗證

265

00:10:26,399 --> 00:10:27,399

馬上再給你一根

266

00:10:27,399 --> 00:10:29,399

如果沒有跑掉真的非常的痛

267

00:10:29,399 --> 00:10:30,399

除此之外呢

268

00:10:30,399 --> 00:10:33,399

連在中國的金像電(2368.TW)

269

00:10:33,399 --> 00:10:35,399

金像電(2368.TW)的產能大部分都在中國

270

00:10:35,399 --> 00:10:37,399

他也鎖了一根掌筆

271

00:10:37,399 --> 00:10:39,399

所以看得出來資金有往PCB去移動

272

00:10:39,399 --> 00:10:41,399

我們也可以持續的觀察這個趨勢

273

00:10:41,399 --> 00:10:43,399

那還有沒有其他的族群

274

00:10:43,399 --> 00:10:45,399

有IC載版

275

00:10:45,399 --> 00:10:48,399

南電(8046)跟欣興(3037)也都有不錯的表現

276

00:10:48,399 --> 00:10:50,399

所以剛剛講的這些股票呢

277

00:10:50,399 --> 00:10:53,399

其實他都還在維持還不錯的區間

278

00:10:53,399 --> 00:10:55,399

或是說還是在上升的趨勢

279

00:10:55,399 --> 00:10:57,399

看不出來有崩跌的跡象

280

00:10:57,399 --> 00:11:00,399

那這樣子的話就不要太早去預判

281

00:11:00,399 --> 00:11:02,399

跟著趨勢走就好了

282

00:11:02,399 --> 00:11:05,399

那我們昨天提到的第三點

283

00:11:05,399 --> 00:11:09,399

有講到說要觀察台幣的匯率

284

00:11:09,399 --> 00:11:12,399

因為最近大家都看到市場上外資不停的在賣台股

285

00:11:12,399 --> 00:11:14,399

但是賣台股基本上這樣的資金

286

00:11:14,399 --> 00:11:16,399

他必須要移出台灣

287

00:11:16,399 --> 00:11:18,399

否則會被金管會請去喝茶

288

00:11:18,399 --> 00:11:20,399

那移出台灣勢必的

289

00:11:20,399 --> 00:11:23,399

這種大量的資金就會造成台幣的貶值

290

00:11:23,399 --> 00:11:26,399

但是我們可以看到台幣目前還在升值

291

00:11:26,399 --> 00:11:28,399

所以到底錢在幹嘛

292

00:11:28,399 --> 00:11:31,399

他停留在台灣或許就是要伺機再重新回到股市

293

00:11:31,399 --> 00:11:33,399

這個未來我們可以持續觀察

294

00:11:33,399 --> 00:11:34,399

但是還要強調一點

295

00:11:34,399 --> 00:11:36,399

外資只是一個

296

00:11:36,399 --> 00:11:38,399

你可以說他是其中一項指標

297

00:11:39,399 --> 00:11:42,399

不是說外資一定要回來台股才有辦法漲

298

00:11:42,399 --> 00:11:43,399

未必

299

00:11:43,399 --> 00:11:47,399

很多的狀況下外資他是在追高跟殺低的

300

00:11:47,399 --> 00:11:49,399

如果你去回測過往的例子

301

00:11:49,399 --> 00:11:52,399

你會發現以整個大盤來說

302

00:11:52,399 --> 00:11:55,399

外資買到一個極限的時候

303

00:11:55,399 --> 00:11:56,399

反而是轉折點

304

00:11:56,399 --> 00:11:58,399

外資賣到一個極限的時候

305

00:11:58,399 --> 00:12:02,399

反而是另外一個反彈的轉折點

306

00:12:02,399 --> 00:12:06,399

所以不要完全的靠單一的指標

307

00:12:06,399 --> 00:12:08,399

去影響到自己的操作

308

00:12:08,399 --> 00:12:09,399

這樣是比較好的

309

00:12:10,399 --> 00:12:14,399

那我們接下來就進入一下Q&A的部分

310

00:12:15,399 --> 00:12:20,399

Q&A的第一題是在YouTube的留言裡面

311

00:12:20,399 --> 00:12:21,399

最新一集的留言

312

00:12:21,399 --> 00:12:22,399

有一位人兄說

313

00:12:22,399 --> 00:12:27,399

遠見(3040.TW)持有最近漲很兇，熱映(3373.TWO)約三成左右

314

00:12:27,399 --> 00:12:29,399

看券商分點進出

315

00:12:29,399 --> 00:12:31,399

買進券商集中在少數幾家

316

00:12:31,399 --> 00:12:32,399

逗號大戶指標

317

00:12:32,399 --> 00:12:35,399

最近兩三天也「量增價還」漲

318

00:12:35,399 --> 00:12:37,399

想請教大大怎麼看

319

00:12:37,399 --> 00:12:38,399

By the way很喜歡你的頻道

320

00:12:38,399 --> 00:12:41,399

這邊我們先把關鍵字拆出來看

321

00:12:41,399 --> 00:12:43,399

遠見(3040.TW)是遠見科技

322

00:12:43,399 --> 00:12:47,399

熱映(3373.TWO)是另外一支做耳溫槍耳溫槍

323

00:12:47,399 --> 00:12:50,399

跟醫療量測工具的公司

324

00:12:50,399 --> 00:12:51,399

我沒記錯的話營收佔比

325

00:12:51,399 --> 00:12:53,399

這些營收佔比大概是57%

326

00:12:54,399 --> 00:12:57,399

另外一點是他提到券商分點進出

327

00:12:57,399 --> 00:13:00,399

買進券商集中在少數幾家

328

00:13:00,399 --> 00:13:02,399

這個是籌碼派的說法

329

00:13:02,399 --> 00:13:04,399

那我先就這點來講一下

330

00:13:04,399 --> 00:13:07,399

我先講即便我自己是一個小小的散戶

331

00:13:07,399 --> 00:13:09,399

我都有好幾個分點

332

00:13:09,399 --> 00:13:11,399

我有好幾個帳號

333

00:13:11,399 --> 00:13:13,399

那大分點的帳號呢

334

00:13:13,399 --> 00:13:17,399

你認為如果他不想讓你看他的進出籌碼

335

00:13:17,399 --> 00:13:19,399

他何必讓你看

336

00:13:19,399 --> 00:13:20,399

你懂我意思嗎

337

00:13:20,399 --> 00:13:24,399

你買進之後你可以用別的券商出

338

00:13:24,399 --> 00:13:26,399

你可以買進之後匯撥出去

339

00:13:26,399 --> 00:13:28,399

而我知道很多迷信籌碼派

340

00:13:28,399 --> 00:13:31,399

當然你說你把它當參考其中一項指標就OK

341

00:13:31,399 --> 00:13:33,399

但是很多迷信的人會出一個問題

342

00:13:33,399 --> 00:13:35,399

因為他一直在盯這個指標

343

00:13:35,399 --> 00:13:37,399

所以可能會變成說

344

00:13:37,399 --> 00:13:39,399

他看到譬如說某大戶狂買

345

00:13:39,399 --> 00:13:41,399

這幾天都是他在買

346

00:13:41,399 --> 00:13:43,399

他買的佔成交量可能就是5% 10%這樣

347

00:13:43,399 --> 00:13:45,399

一直在收

348

00:13:45,399 --> 00:13:46,399

那就覺得說很穩很穩

349

00:13:46,399 --> 00:13:47,399

那後來真的有上漲了

350

00:13:47,399 --> 00:13:49,399

所以他就追進去了

351

00:13:49,399 --> 00:13:51,399

那之後進入盤點

352

00:13:51,399 --> 00:13:52,399

進入盤點的時候他就持續在盯

353

00:13:52,399 --> 00:13:54,399

就發現說他都沒有出啊

354

00:13:54,399 --> 00:13:55,399

他還在啊

355

00:13:55,399 --> 00:13:56,399

那故事應該還在啊

356

00:13:56,399 --> 00:13:58,399

就可能他後來還會拉啊

357

00:13:58,399 --> 00:14:00,399

但就從來沒拉過了

358

00:14:00,399 --> 00:14:02,399

不知道這樣子案例大家有沒看過

359

00:14:02,399 --> 00:14:04,399

可是我只能說非常的常見

360

00:14:04,399 --> 00:14:06,399

籌碼應該算是

361

00:14:08,399 --> 00:14:10,399

最好做的指標

362

00:14:10,399 --> 00:14:11,399

最好做的

363

00:14:11,399 --> 00:14:13,399

他給你看就是他想給你看的

364

00:14:13,399 --> 00:14:14,399

他不想給你看的

365

00:14:14,399 --> 00:14:16,399

他大可以藏起來

366

00:14:16,399 --> 00:14:18,399

他可以用好多個分散的分點去收

367

00:14:18,399 --> 00:14:20,399

那最後面可能就是用

368

00:14:20,399 --> 00:14:23,399

一個集中的戶頭去出貨

369

00:14:23,399 --> 00:14:25,399

讓你覺得說啊完蛋了

370

00:14:25,399 --> 00:14:26,399

結果後來上漲

371

00:14:26,399 --> 00:14:27,399

那當然他也可以用

372

00:14:27,399 --> 00:14:29,399

一個分點去收大量的指標

373

00:14:29,399 --> 00:14:31,399

讓你覺得說嗯他買進了

374

00:14:31,399 --> 00:14:33,399

然後之後呢出貨

375

00:14:33,399 --> 00:14:34,399

這都是有可能的

376

00:14:34,399 --> 00:14:36,399

那更別講說

377

00:14:36,399 --> 00:14:38,399

比如說這個借券賣啊

378

00:14:38,399 --> 00:14:39,399

或是法人的指標

379

00:14:39,399 --> 00:14:41,399

因為法人沒有辦法融券

380

00:14:41,399 --> 00:14:42,399

他們只能借券賣

381

00:14:43,399 --> 00:14:45,399

借券賣也有很多個做法

382

00:14:45,399 --> 00:14:48,399

簡單來講法人的操作方式太多了

383

00:14:48,399 --> 00:14:49,399

他可能是要鎖利

384

00:14:49,399 --> 00:14:51,399

他可能只是要停泊資金

385

00:14:51,399 --> 00:14:53,399

或者是說他就是要放空

386

00:14:53,399 --> 00:14:55,399

那即便說法人放空

387

00:14:55,399 --> 00:14:57,399

就以去年很紅的

388

00:14:57,399 --> 00:14:59,399

錸德(2349.TW)跟中環(2323.TW)來講

389

00:14:59,399 --> 00:15:01,399

法人放空反而是吃鱉

390

00:15:01,399 --> 00:15:03,399

他就是整個被嘎爆

391

00:15:03,399 --> 00:15:05,399

所以這種籌碼就是

392

00:15:05,399 --> 00:15:06,399

基本上我會建議你

393

00:15:06,399 --> 00:15:07,399

你就當作參考就好

394

00:15:07,399 --> 00:15:08,399

他絕對不是一個

395

00:15:08,399 --> 00:15:10,399

可以當作唯一

396

00:15:11,399 --> 00:15:13,399

倚憑的操作指標

397

00:15:14,399 --> 00:15:16,399

好那講完了籌碼的部分

398

00:15:16,399 --> 00:15:18,399

我們就來講遠見(3040.TW)持有

399

00:15:18,399 --> 00:15:21,399

熱映(3373.TWO)三成這件事情要怎麼評價

400

00:15:21,399 --> 00:15:23,399

我先舉一個例子

401

00:15:23,399 --> 00:15:25,399

在PTT的股票版裡面

402

00:15:25,399 --> 00:15:27,399

前陣子有一位大戶

403

00:15:27,399 --> 00:15:29,399

他買了一大堆的楠梓電(2316.TW)

404

00:15:30,399 --> 00:15:32,399

他買進楠梓電(2316.TW)的原因是

405

00:15:32,399 --> 00:15:34,399

因為楠梓電(2316.TW)持有中國的滬士電子(002463-SZ)

406

00:15:35,399 --> 00:15:36,399

很多的股份

407

00:15:36,399 --> 00:15:38,399

那因為持有中國滬士電子(002463-SZ)

408

00:15:38,399 --> 00:15:39,399

很多的股份

409

00:15:39,399 --> 00:15:42,399

所以可以為楠梓電(2316.TW)帶來多少的價值

410

00:15:42,399 --> 00:15:43,399

他的說法是這樣

411

00:15:43,399 --> 00:15:45,399

但是這個說法的盲點是

412

00:15:46,399 --> 00:15:48,399

楠梓電(2316.TW)要把滬士電子(002463-SZ)給賣了

413

00:15:48,399 --> 00:15:49,399

才是像他這樣講的

414

00:15:50,399 --> 00:15:52,399

但是會賺錢的小金雞母公司

415

00:15:52,399 --> 00:15:53,399

會把它賣掉嗎

416

00:15:53,399 --> 00:15:54,399

這個是大家可以思考的

417

00:15:54,399 --> 00:15:56,399

但如果講說如果公司真的就

418

00:15:56,399 --> 00:15:59,399

譬如說在滬士電子(002463-SZ)的高點出脫

419

00:16:00,399 --> 00:16:01,399

把這個錢收回來

420

00:16:01,399 --> 00:16:02,399

楠梓電(2316.TW)裡面

421

00:16:02,399 --> 00:16:03,399

那當然就像他講的

422

00:16:03,399 --> 00:16:07,399

楠梓電(2316.TW)應該要有翻倍再翻倍的價值

423

00:16:07,399 --> 00:16:08,399

因為現金進來了

424

00:16:09,399 --> 00:16:10,399

但如果說沒有出脫的話

425

00:16:10,399 --> 00:16:11,399

要怎麼去評價他呢

426

00:16:11,399 --> 00:16:13,399

這時候的評價方式可能就比較不一樣

427

00:16:13,399 --> 00:16:15,399

會變成說

428

00:16:15,399 --> 00:16:18,399

要看滬士電子(002463-SZ)配息給楠梓電(2316.TW)

429

00:16:18,399 --> 00:16:20,399

那楠梓電(2316.TW)再配息給股東

430

00:16:20,399 --> 00:16:21,399

那楠梓電(2316.TW)再配息給股東

431

00:16:21,399 --> 00:16:22,399

按比例去算之後

432

00:16:22,399 --> 00:16:24,399

你去自己套個常數

433

00:16:24,399 --> 00:16:28,399

那算出來應該他的價值是多少錢

434

00:16:28,399 --> 00:16:29,399

貢獻獲利多少錢

435

00:16:29,399 --> 00:16:31,399

套本益比是多少錢

436

00:16:31,399 --> 00:16:34,399

他跟直接賣出就有差

437

00:16:34,399 --> 00:16:36,399

這個跟很多股票

438

00:16:36,399 --> 00:16:38,399

很多冷門小股啦

439

00:16:38,399 --> 00:16:39,399

但是他持有

440

00:16:39,399 --> 00:16:41,399

譬如說非常貴的土地

441

00:16:41,399 --> 00:16:44,399

那土地的本身可能就已經

442

00:16:45,399 --> 00:16:46,399

反映在他的股價上面

443

00:16:46,399 --> 00:16:48,399

就感覺說奇怪你股價上的價值

444

00:16:48,399 --> 00:16:49,399

反映在他的股價上面

445

00:16:49,399 --> 00:16:51,399

就感覺說奇怪你股價怎麼這麼便宜

446

00:16:51,399 --> 00:16:53,399

可是你那個地如果賣掉

447

00:16:53,399 --> 00:16:54,399

你的股價應該多少錢

448

00:16:54,399 --> 00:16:56,399

可是問題是你沒有賣啊

449

00:16:57,399 --> 00:16:59,399

那這個遠見(3040.TW)也是一樣

450

00:16:59,399 --> 00:17:01,399

他今天持有熱映(3373.TWO)

451

00:17:01,399 --> 00:17:03,399

那熱映(3373.TWO)大家都知道是

452

00:17:03,399 --> 00:17:04,400

防疫的概念股

453

00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:05,400

目前在噴嘛

454

00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,400

那當然你也不能說他是漲假的

455

00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:09,400

因為如果說他是

456

00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,400

因為疫情的關係

457

00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,400

真的被拉了很多體溫量測的工具

458

00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:16,400

那導致營收上漲

459

00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:17,400

那就是漲真的嘛

460

00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,400

只是這個疫情跟題材可以持續多久

461

00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,400

很難說還要再觀察

462

00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:24,400

那如果你要去評價遠見(3040.TW)持有的話

463

00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:25,400

當然以題材面

464

00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,400

至少目前熱映(3373.TWO)漲

465

00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:28,400

遠見就跟著漲了嘛

466

00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,400

反正就是跟風漲一波

467

00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:31,400

這個有漲就是有漲

468

00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,400

事實就是這樣子

469

00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,400

但是如果說你要用比較

470

00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,400

基本面的角度去看的話

471

00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,400

你必須要看遠見(3040.TW)會不會在

472

00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,400

熱映(3373.TWO)的相對高點出脫

473

00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,400

並且貢獻為遠見(3040.TW)的獲利

474

00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,400

你才可以去算說

475

00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,400

他持有的這個成數

476

00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:52,400

幫遠見(3040.TW)帶來多少的現金

477

00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,400

並且去推升他的股價

478

00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:55,400

那如果他沒有要賣的話

479

00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,400

你就不能夠這樣子看

480

00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,400

所以有很多人在這地方會中陷阱

481

00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:02,400

就是這樣的題材其實

482

00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:03,400

很常見非常常見

483

00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:04,400

除了楠梓電(2316.TW)之外

484

00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:05,400

之前還有很多

485

00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,400

就是因為某公司持有另外一家公司

486

00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,400

那這個另外一家公司上漲了

487

00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:12,400

所以某公司就跟著漲

488

00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,400

那這種漲的時候當然

489

00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,400

漲的時候很多時候就是一個事

490

00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,400

這時候要衝要買

491

00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:19,400

大家會衝

492

00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:20,400

那他不用考慮太多

493

00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,400

但是回跌的時候

494

00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,400

會站回來的位置

495

00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,400

就會回到我們剛才講的

496

00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,400

相對的估值的位置

497

00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:29,400

但是估值的位置怎麼估

498

00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,400

也沒有一個一定

499

00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,400

這只是給你一個當作是

500

00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:35,400

可以思考的方向

501

00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,400

就這樣子而已

502

00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:38,400

那另外一個問題呢

503

00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,400

是有人問說

504

00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,400

元大台灣50(0050.TW)跟富邦台50(006208.TW)要選誰

505

00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,400

元大台灣50(0050.TW)是元大的

506

00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,400

富邦台50(006208.TW)是富邦的

507

00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:53,400

他們追的標的都是台灣的50大市值

508

00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,400

就是台灣50大

509

00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:56,400

那這50大市值呢

510

00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,400

他們的配置的百分比也都差不多

511

00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:00,400

所以對我來說

512

00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,400

這兩支基本上是一樣的

513

00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,400

當然我知道很多

514

00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,400

開課收費的ETF老師

515

00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:09,400

他們一定會把你算得很細

516

00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,400

告訴你說哪裡有差距

517

00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:13,400

可是老話一句啦

518

00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,400

這個券商也不是白痴

519

00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,400

他不可能會讓說

520

00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,400

競爭對手一直都比你好

521

00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,400

他的那個費用可能也會去做調整

522

00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,400

那並且目前回測起來

523

00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,400

其實我根本覺得那個%數的差距

524

00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,400

可以忽略不計

525

00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,400

但是我知道很多人會去強調

526

00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,400

大概是有差一點點啊什麼的

527

00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:33,400

那也要看你的資金

528

00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:34,400

你有幾千萬幾億

529

00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:35,400

那可能有差

530

00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,400

那但是如果是我呢

531

00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:38,400

我會選元大台灣50(0050.TW)

532

00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,400

元大台灣50(0050.TW)的成交量嘛

533

00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,400

元大台灣50(0050.TW)的成交量比較大

534

00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:43,400

時間比較悠久

535

00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:45,400

那也不是說富邦台50(006208.TW)不好

536

00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:46,400

那就是選擇而已

537

00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,400

但以一般來講呢

538

00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,400

如果你有錢的你可能買元大台灣50(0050.TW)

539

00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,400

那你比較沒錢的就買富邦台50(006208.TW)

540

00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:53,400

比較便宜

541

00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,400

但是報酬率是差不多的

542

00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,400

那他這個問題我就衍伸另外一個

543

00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,400

就是元大台灣50(0050.TW)跟元大高股息(0056.TW)要怎麼選

544

00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,400

這也是很多人在問的

545

00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,400

這要看你是哪一派的投資人

546

00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,400

會關注我們股癌的

547

00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,400

應該是主動投資人比較多

548

00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:12,400

就是相信人定勝天的啦

549

00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,400

那有另外一派的做法的人

550

00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,400

當然我們股癌也是有這樣子的人

551

00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:18,400

他們會分享

552

00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,400

就是說指數型投資

553

00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,400

他相信市場的報酬

554

00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:25,400

終究會比你個人操盤來得好

555

00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,400

那這樣的說法也是有很多背書啦

556

00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:31,400

比方說有一個諾貝爾講得主

557

00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:32,400

他曾經發表一個論文

558

00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:33,400

就是講說

559

00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:34,400

Market timing

560

00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,400

擇時進出不是一個好的操作方法

561

00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,400

除非你是市場的極少數

562

00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,400

我好像記得是譬如說前20%

563

00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,400

還前30%的人

564

00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,400

你才有這個能力跟機會做到Market timing

565

00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,400

擇時進出

566

00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,400

他一直講說比方說

567

00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:52,400

市場會有幾個拐點

568

00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,400

中國的講法拐點我覺得蠻有用的

569

00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:56,400

下跌往上拐

570

00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,400

下跌往上拐

571

00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:00,400

你只有真正前面厲害的人

572

00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,400

你有辦法去抓這個拐點

573

00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,400

你可能沒有辦法抓到很準的點位

574

00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:06,400

但是差不多啦

575

00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:07,400

反正就是買在相對低

576

00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,400

賣在相對高

577

00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,400

大家講的股票很簡單

578

00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:12,400

就是低買高賣

579

00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,400

但是問題就是很多人做不到

580

00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,400

所以根據這個說法

581

00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,400

就是說其實擇時進出

582

00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,400

對大部分的人來說是做不到的

583

00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:22,400

所以你只能做的

584

00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,400

就只是你固定的時間買進

585

00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,400

去攤平你的成本

586

00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,400

並且追求市場的報酬

587

00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:33,400

所以如果你是這樣子的指數投資派的信奉者的話

588

00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:34,400

你當然就是選元大台灣50(0050.TW)

589

00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,400

因為元大台灣50(0050.TW)就是在做這樣子的事情

590

00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,400

你買元大台灣50(0050.TW)並且定期定額的買進

591

00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,400

就是符合這樣子的精神

592

00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,400

那當然這邊先不談說全球配置

593

00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,400

因為這種指數派的投資人很多都是很Hardcore的

594

00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,400

就是他會認為說

595

00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,400

譬如說我買個股是非常高風險的行為

596

00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,400

那所以我買指數

597

00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:56,400

但是更Hardcore的人就是說

598

00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,400

你買指數也是高風險的行為

599

00:21:58,400 --> 00:21:59,400

因為你是重壓台灣

600

00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:00,400

你怎麼知道台灣不會滅國

601

00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:02,400

所以你應該是要買全球股市

602

00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,400

所以最Hardcore的人是搞到全球配置

603

00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,400

那當然大部分的人是沒有那樣子的資金

604

00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,400

就不用去想那麼多

605

00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,400

那元大高股息(0056.TW)的差別就是他跟元大台灣50(0050.TW)呢

606

00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:17,400

最大的不同是元大高股息(0056.TW)還是有人為的因素干擾

607

00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:22,400

但是你指數投資就是應該要把人為的因素降到最低才對

608

00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,400

元大高股息(0056.TW)他是有經理人去選

609

00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,400

預期配息高的標的把它放進來

610

00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,400

去增加他的權重

611

00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,400

去把它加入他的配置裡面

612

00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,400

所以有人為的因素呢

613

00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:41,400

就跟你最核心的那種指數投資的概念就有差別了

614

00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,400

不過當然各有各的信奉者

615

00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:44,400

我們目前如果用回測來講

616

00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,400

過去5年10年的數字測起來

617

00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,400

元大台灣50(0050.TW)的報酬是確實比元大高股息(0056.TW)好

618

00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,400

但是不代表未來5年10年

619

00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,400

元大台灣50(0050.TW)一定比元大高股息(0056.TW)好

620

00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,400

很難講真的很難講

621

00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,400

特別是在假設說大空頭修正的時候

622

00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,400

或許元大高股息(0056.TW)因為有經理人可以去選的關係

623

00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:08,400

他的衝擊不會比元大台灣50(0050.TW)來的大都很難說

624

00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:10,400

這個派系上太多種

625

00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:14,400

就好像是高中你去選一類二類三類一樣

626

00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,400

有些人覺得說文組就是出來就是餓死

627

00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,400

有些人說理組就是又宅又臭

628

00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,400

生科根本沒有人要討論

629

00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,400

因為選第三類組就是路有凍死骨的那些

630

00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:29,400

老笑話，就是說每個人信仰的東西不一樣

631

00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,400

所以簡單來講

632

00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,400

如果你希望更平均一點的話

633

00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,400

你就是多做一點

634

00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,400

你可以元大高股息(0056.TW)買一點元大台灣50(0050.TW)買一點

635

00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,400

這個就是我兩邊都拿

636

00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:45,400

這其實也就是買ETF的核心價值

637

00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,400

就是你知道自己選股沒有辦法選得很準

638

00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,400

比方說這波下跌

639

00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,400

我現在就告訴你強勢股很多

640

00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:53,400

可是為什麼你買的是跌的

641

00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,400

會不會就是你選股能力有問題

642

00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,400

那及早看清這件事的話

643

00:23:58,400 --> 00:23:59,400

或許你就開始買進ETF

644

00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,400

你不要自己選

645

00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:05,400

你讓台灣市值最大的最強的50家公司幫你賺錢

646

00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,400

這一種做法

647

00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,400

那有一些對沖基金的經理人

648

00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,400

他們自己退休之後

649

00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,400

他也不是去做主動投資

650

00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:14,400

他可能去買

651

00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,400

比如去買波克夏的股票

652

00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,400

他讓巴菲特幫他投資

653

00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,400

或是他去做指數投資

654

00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,400

有很多這樣的選擇

655

00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,400

反正你如果錢多

656

00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,400

你當然就可以配置在各種不一樣的產品

657

00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,400

並且以風險的角度來說

658

00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,400

因為你不是把雞蛋放在同一個籃子

659

00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:36,400

那當然你就比較減少那種大賠的機會

660

00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,400

不過相對的你也沒有那種爆賺的機會

661

00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,400

所以這是各有各的選擇

662

00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,400

那我們這集就先大概講到這裡

663

00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,400

接下來這兩題Q&A

664

00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:51,400

我們時間盡量控制在25分鐘到30分鐘左右

665

00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,400

所以如果有其他的問題

666

00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,400

歡迎留言繼續跟我們討論

667

00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,400

那我們會不定期的公佈

668

00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,400

希望一兩天內可以錄一集

669

00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:02,400

每一兩天

670

00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,400

如果有大事的話可能就更急

671

00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,400

如果出國完的話可能就delay