是雙眼被蒙蔽還是揮舞正義的利劍－淺談川普鋼鋁關稅的利弊以及貿易戰對我國的影響

過去這三個月美國開徵鋼鋁關稅到底是怎麼一回事

即便川普並不是開徵鋼鋁關稅的始作俑者
但是殷鑑不遠。

既然美國沒有對臺灣開徵關稅
那臺灣是否能夠就此逃過一劫呢​？

總結

結語

註解：

1. (1) “On Friday, in response to unfair Chinese practices, the United States began imposing tariffs of 25 percent on approximately $34 billion worth of Chinese imports. These tariffs will eventually cover up to $50 billion in Chinese imports as legal processes conclude. The products targeted by the tariffs are those that benefit from China’s industrial policy and forced technology transfer practices.”
   節錄自USTR《Statement By U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Section 301 Action》
2. (2) “As a result of China’s retaliation and failure to change its practices, the President has ordered USTR to begin the process of imposing tariffs of 10 percent on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports. This is an appropriate response under the authority of Section 301 to obtain the elimination of China’s harmful industrial policies. USTR will proceed with a transparent and comprehensive public notice and comment process prior to the imposition of final tariffs, as we have for previous tariffs.”
   節錄自USTR《Statement By U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Section 301 Action》
3. (3) 對此國防安全顧慮川普曾在電話中向加拿大總理Justin Treaudu提及這個決定是因為1812年戰爭The War of 1812中加拿大的軍隊事實上當時是由英國軍隊為主的遠征部隊曾經燒毀白宮因此才需要對加國如此防範。
4. (4) 根據英國獨立報報導墨西哥當局正在和拉丁美洲的國家接洽試圖尋求能一同反制美國再起的霸道行為(re-emergence of US bullying.)。
5. (5) "The 'Joint Remedy', which calls for tariffs of 15-20 percent on most products, would slash affected imports by 20 percent. Domestic prices and output would increase slightly, resulting in somewhat larger revenues for the steel industry. About 3,500 actual and potential jobs could be "saved" but at an annual cost of $2 billion to the steel users-or $584,000 per job saved."
   節錄自Peterson Institute for International Economics《Time for a Grand Bargain in Steel》
6. (6) This would set off a major global chain reaction. Given their trade open-ness and exposure to the electronics supply chain, there will no respite whatsoever for Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan in this tail risk scenario.
   節錄自DBS《DBS Flash Growth implication of a full-blown trade war》
7. (7) (高盛證券首席經濟學家)Jan Hatzius指出人民幣貶值5%將讓中國經濟成長率增加0.4個百分點而若中國將美債脫手恐使美國資金情況緊張連帶波及加拿大及墨西哥等經濟體相較之下引導人民幣貶值對中國經濟較有利而這也是中國可能採取的策略。
   節錄自自由時報貿易戰加劇 分析師中國樂見人民幣貶值

延伸閱讀：

1. MBA智庫301條款
2. 駐美代表處經濟組第301條款及特別301條款
3. DW: Trade War Slows Chinese Cash Flows to the US
4. DW: WTO Chief Roberto Azevedo Warns of Increased Risk of Trade Wars
5. United States International Trade Commission: Steel: Monitoring Developments In The Domestic Industry (Investigation No. TA-204-9)
6. Mexican Government: México impondrá medidas equivalentes a diversos productos ante las medidas proteccionistas de EE.UU. en acero y aluminio
7. European Commission: European Commission reacts to the US restrictions on steel and aluminium affecting the EU
8. Statement By U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Section 301 Action
9. Request for Comments concerning Propsed Modification of Action Pursuant to Section 301: China’s Acts, Policies and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property and Innovation