Observation on the succession of the Central Ministries and Commissions of the CCP: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council
羔裘，也就是小羊皮做的衣服，在《詩經》中常被用來借指，在那個時代能夠穿上這類衣服的「官員」，例如〈鄭風‧羔裘〉就說「羔裘晏兮，三英粲兮。彼其之子，邦之彥兮」。而這個專欄，主要是談談對中共黨政人事變化的觀察，遂藉此之意，冠以「言羔裘」為名。
在中共地方人事「換屆」工作下半場正式開始前，從本周起我們穿插著開始觀察中共中央各部委到「20大」時，首長的可能變化，本周就從對臺灣而言最常見到的中共官員之二─外交部及國臺辦看起吧。
This week we begin to observe the possible changes in the heads of the ministries and commissions of the CCP Central Committee when they reach the "20th National Congress", starting with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOF) of the China and the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the State Council of China.
面臨「雙退」的中共外交體系
中共外事系統目前兩大首長，中共中央外事委員會辦公室主任楊潔篪及中共國務委員兼外交部長王毅，即便過往的升遷過程中，看似都是王接班楊的位子，但1950出生的楊潔篪今年已屆七旬，1953出生的王毅也已滿69歲，兩人其實算是「同梯」，依年齡看都必須在中共「20大」時退休，習近平「第三任期」的外交政策執行者，勢必得要走馬換將。
The current two chiefs of the CCP's foreign affairs system, Yang Jiechi (born on 1st May 1950), the director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CCP Central Committee, and Wang Yi (born on 19th Oct. 1953), The State Councilor and Foreign Minister, both must retire at the 20th National Congress, according to to their age. The foreign policy executive of Xi's "third term" must be replaced.
中共外長可能接班人選─中央外事委辦公室(The possible successor of the CCP's foreign minister - the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission)，來源：作者自行整理。
中共外長可能接班人選─中共外交部(The possible successor of the CCP's foreign minister - the MFA)，來源：作者自行整理。
今（2022）年1月11日中共舉行的「省部級幹部研討會」上，中共中央外事工作委員會辦公室副主任劉建超不但出席，且座位與「正部級」的中共中央臺辦主任劉結一及中共中央財辦常務副主任韓文秀等人同列，被視為他可能已經接任「正部級」的中共中央外事工作委員會辦公室常務副主任，更很有希望是下一任中共外長的人選。
On January 11, 2022, Liu Jianchao, the Deputy Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CCP Central Committee, attended the "Provincial and Ministerial Cadre Seminar" of CCP, with the seat of "Provincial-Ministerial level," which is next to with Liu Jieyi, the Director of the TAO of the CPC Central Committee and Han Wenxiu, the executive deputy director of the Central Finance Office of the Communist Party of China. It perhaps represents that Liu Jianchao has already taken over as the executive deputy director of the Foreign Affairs Commission Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which is "Provincial-Ministerial level" position, and heading to take over as Foreign Minister.
但事情並沒有那麼絕對，因為除他以外，中共外事系統中仍有不少「具競爭力」的官員，包括現在已是「正部級」的中共外交部黨委書記、部黨校校長齊玉，以及尚在「副部級」的中共外交部副部長樂玉成、馬朝旭等人。且即便劉建超果真升任已經懸缺3年的中共中央外事工作委員會辦公室常務副主任，佔據在中共外事系統中晉升的重要職位，但他本人自2015年起暫離中共外交系統，隨後歷任地方與紀檢系統，直到2018年才回任外交系統，相較於長期任職於中共中央外事委員會辦公室及外交部的樂玉成等人，這樣「跨區」的經驗是利是弊還未可知。
But it has not yet been determined, there are still many competitive officials, including Qi Yu, the party secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs(Provincial-Ministerial level) , the Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng, Ma Zhaoxu and others. Although Liu Jianchao has already promoted to the executive deputy director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CCP, which is an important position in the foreign affairs system, but he has temporarily left the foreign affairs system since 2015, served as local government and disciplinary inspection, and returned to the diplomatic system in 2018. In Comparison with Le Yucheng and others who have long served in the Office of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the CPC Central Committee and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it is unclear whether such experience is pros or cons.
「留王退楊」還是全面更新？
除了全面啟用新人掌理中共外事系統，近期各界也不乏認為可以再循前例，即72歲的楊潔篪退休，69歲的王毅再度接替楊，出任中共中央外事委員會辦公室主任的猜測，但我個人目前認為可能性較低，原因有二，第一是我們前幾周談過，目前看來習的人事布局是「習個人破例而非全面打破退休年齡慣例」，所以留下72歲的楊或是69歲的王都不符慣例，習近期對外事系統的人事調度，也看不出非要「破例留人」的必要；其次，就算只是「留王退楊」也會對整體中共外交體系人事晉升造成很大「回堵」，無法循例晉升難免打擊內部士氣及後續人事規劃，從前面我們談地方或是各個單位人事安排的情況來看，大方向應該仍是讓人事按時續「新陳代謝」。
Some speculate that Yang Jiechi will retire, but Wang Yi will replace Yang as the director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee. However, such scenario is unlikely because of two reasons: first, it's not in line with the practice to retain Yang or Wang; second, even just retaining Wang will cause a great impact in the promotion of personnel in the overall CCP's diplomatic system. It should still be to let personnel continue to metabolize on time.
「國臺辦」首長會繼續與外事系統人事「聯動」嗎？
談完中共下屆外長的可能人選，接著要談中共「國臺辦」主任的可能接班人選，除了是因為現任中共「國臺辦」主任劉結一今年滿65歲，已達「正部級」退休年齡，也是因為自2008年王毅接任中共「國臺辦」主任起，隨後張志軍及現任的劉結一，一連3任中共「國臺辦」主任皆由中共外交系統官員轉任，這樣的傳統若是在中共「20大」時延續，那麼中共「國臺辦」主任的接班人選勢必會與中共外交人事的變化「聯動」。
After discussing about the possible candidates of the next foreign minister of CCP, let’s talk about the potential successors of the director of TAO of the State Council of the CCP. Not only the current director Liu Jieyi is 65 years old this year and has reached the retirement age of "Provincial-Ministerial level", also because since Wang Yi took over as the director of Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council in 2008, following 3 terms including Zhang Zhijun and Liu Jieyi, were all transferred from the foreign affairs system. If the tradition goes on in the 20th National Congress of the CCP, the successor of the director Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the CCP will inevitably be linked with the changes in the diplomatic personnel of the CCP.
中共國臺辦主任可能接班人選─中共國臺辦(The possible successor of the director of Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the CCP - the TAO of the State Council of the CCP)，來源：作者自行整理。
中共國臺辦主任可能接班人選─中共外交體系(The possible successor of the director of Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the CCP - the foreign affairs system of the CCP)，來源：作者自行整理。
所以除了目前位居中共「國臺辦」副主任的4人外，我們也列出幾個可能「換跑道」轉任中共「國臺辦」的可能中共外交官員，參照王毅、張志軍及劉結一等3人的例子，以及中共將對臺政策置於「美中關係」框架下思考，並盡力限縮臺灣國際空間等原則，列出包括「現已為正部級或有升任可能之副部級」、「具備對美外交工作經驗或對國際組織工作經驗」及「年齡以近60左右者可能性較高」等標準，於是我們可以篩出以下人選，至於實際人選如何，就讓我們再持續觀察下去吧。
Therefore, in addition to the 4 people currently serving as deputy directors Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the CCP, we also list a few possible candidates who serving as the diplomats now. Referring to Wang Yi, Zhang Zhijun and Liu Judging as the examples, and the CCP put its Taiwan policy under the framework of Sino-US relations, trying to limit Taiwan’s international space, we could list several criteriawe like "Provincial-Ministerial level already or Sub-Provincial/Ministerial level with possibility of promoting", "Having experience in diplomatic work with the United States or working in international organizations", and "The age is around 60." Then we can filter the following candidates below, as for the actual candidates, let us Keep watching.
