韓儒伯投書：批台，放馬

韓儒伯投書：批台，放馬

【Comment】

Rupert Hammond-Chambers, the Chair of Taipei US Chamber of Commerce, wrote an article “Taiwan's Military Under Siege” to the Wall Street Journal on August 12^th. 

In the article, he worried that the death of Corporal Hong Chong-chiu could trigger more significant results, which might sabotage Taiwan’s relations with the US as well as Japan, and might induce Beijing to attack Taiwan.  In short, Taiwan could harm the connections with the three powers.

As a reader, I noticed that Hammond-Chambers shield from criticizing Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou , the C-in-C with the supreme power over the military.  The “turmoil” that Hammond-Chambers indicated is actually the result of Ma’s having focused on his secret and quick China-friendly policies and having done nothing necessary to balance domesticimpact.  Consumer’s price, especially the real estate, keeps roaring high, while the people’s payroll shrinks to late 1990s.  Hung ’s case is in fact the tiny straw that broke the camel's back.

Who is to blame?  Hammond-Chambers skipped MYJ.

Hammond-Chambers’ worries were justified, mostly.  However, people on Taiwan could not understand why the military insisted on protecting a few individual servicemen at the cost of the authority of the Department of Defense as a whole.  What on earth was the inside story?

It is even weirder that MYJ was adamant in making the ceremonial 12-day visit abroad and leaving the turmoil behind while the crisis demanded immediate attention.

韓伯儒仍捨不得評論的是：有權者馬英九。他似乎未觀察到：就是馬對中過速和解與對內不作為，導致一發不可收拾。此案，只是引爆點而已。

韓伯儒所憂慮的大都正確，但人民不解的是：為何軍方執意維護幾位軍人犯下的錯誤，不惜以整個軍方的公信力為代價？其中的深奧處在哪裡？

我們更要問：在關鍵時刻，馬為何執意出國？

美台商會會長韓儒伯：「 台傾中勢力 藉洪案攻擊國防部」◎自由（2013.08.14）http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2013/new/aug/15/today-p1.htm

〔駐美特派員曹郁芬／華府十三日報導〕美台商會會長韓儒伯今天在華爾街日報投書表示，台灣義務役下士洪仲丘死亡引起台灣公民社會與國防部發生衝突，國民黨處理此事的方式可能使台灣與美、中的關係都陷入不穩定。一些傾中勢力更藉此攻擊國防部，批評國防部不值得大力支持。

國民黨處理方式 造成台美中關係不穩

韓儒伯說，華府有理由擔心此事的後遺症，因為國防部是政府裡最傾美的機構，有些國民黨人想要限制國防部的財政，原本已預算不足的國防部進一步弱化，因此得不到所需要的資源與支持以轉型為一支裝備先進、全募兵制的部隊。

他指出，這起醜聞也可能使台灣與中國關係不穩。國民黨內的深藍和傾中勢力要馬英九和北京進行政治軍事談判。這些人想限制國防預算，強調中國的軍事建構不值得擔心，錢應該花在別的地方。這是一條危險的道路，因為台灣內部對兩岸談判並無共識。如果沒有可靠的國防，台灣有一天可能被迫接受北京的條件去統一。

韓儒伯表示，北京領導人一定高興地在觀察這個發展，台北正在損害自己的嚇阻力和軍力，其威力遠大於解放軍任何武器，這個損害嚴重威脅到台灣的國家安全，而且會影響到美、日的國家安全。

若無可靠國防 台灣將被迫接受統一

他認為，歐巴馬政府決定重返亞洲時於口頭和實質上略過台灣，等於告訴中國，台灣已不再是美國政策的中心，如此一來會在二○一六選舉，台海發展軌跡改變時邀請中共冒進。中國目前扮白臉是因為相信馬英九執政後，台灣被吸納到中國的軌道內，如果北京不再相信時間站在它那邊，一定會變臉。如果美國要避免當年鼓勵北韓入侵南韓的錯誤，一定要傳達防衛台灣的訊息。

美應售台F-16C/D、潛艦 協助防衛

他說，美國不應在對台軍售上設限，第一步就是售台F-16C/D戰機，然後是潛艦。歐巴馬政府應該指示閣員每年訪台，資深經濟官員及軍方高層將領訪台也應成為常態。

Taiwan's Military Under Siege◎Rupert Hammond-Chambers（2013.08.12）http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324769704579008471763297750.html

After several years of relative calm, Taiwan faces a new political crossroads.  The tragic hazing death of army conscript Hung Chung-chiu has thrown the entire island into turmoil, and brought a coalition of civil society groups into collision with the Ministry of National Defense (MND).  The way the ruling Kuomintang handles the scandal could destabilize relations with both the U.S. and China.

Corporal Hung, after receiving significant physical hazing, died in disciplinary confinement.  His alleged transgression was the taking of a camera phone on to a military base, but many speculate that he was privy to corruption on the base.  The video footage of his confinement was erased before it could be handed over to judicial authorities.

Taiwan's citizens view this case through the prism of a MND that acts with impunity, and the possibility of corruption on the base has further aggravated events.  Pro-China forces have jumped on the opportunity to further undermine the MND and claim that the military is unworthy of robust support.

Washington has reason to worry about that backlash because the MND is the most important pro-American institution within the government.  Some in the KMT want to impose financial restrictions on the MND to "starve the beast" in the aftermath of the hazing scandal. 

This would further weaken the already underfunded MND at a time when the military requires resources and support to transform itself into a modern, well-equipped, and all-volunteer force.  Mr. Ma committed to turning a conscript army into an all-volunteer force, but has so far failed to come up with the budget.

That means the military is unable to execute a policy directive from its civilian leadership.  The MND is frustrated over what it views as a policy that by design leaves it highly vulnerable to political attack.  Recent events have also left a vacuum at the top, with two ministers resigning in rapid succession.

The scandal could also destabilize relations with mainland China.  The "deep blue"—i.e. pro-China—members of Mr. Ma 's Kuomintang party want him to open political and military talks with Beijing, which has been frustrated with the lack of movement in this area after it made economic overtures to the island.  The deep blue camp wants to restrict funds to the MND, claiming that China's ongoing military build-up is nothing to worry about and that the money should be spent elsewhere. 

This is a dangerous road, as there is no consensus in Taiwan on moving forward with cross-Strait talks.  More than 90% of Taiwan's citizens support the status quo of de facto independence, and forcing through such talks would further polarize Taiwan society.  But without a credible defense, Taiwan could one day be forced to accept Beijing's terms on reunification.

Chinese leaders must be watching these developments with positive glee.  Taipei is doing more damage to its own ability to deter mainland coercion and military attack than any weapon the People's Liberation Army could conceive.  This damage represents a serious threat to Taiwan's national security, and by extension to the national security of the U.S. and Japan.

Given the political atmosphere, the KMT's prospects in next year's five municipal elections are tenuous at best.  If the opposition DPP wins three or more municipalities, they will likely have the momentum to regain the presidency in 2016.  And even if the KMT hold on to the presidency, the incoming president will have limited maneuvering room in relations with China.  Either way, tensions are set to rise as China sees its present strategy of engagement founder on the realities of Taiwan's vibrant democracy.

The Obama administration's decision rhetorically and substantively to omit Taiwan from its pivot to Asia telegraphs to China that Taiwan is no longer central to U.S. policy.  By doing so, the U.S. is inviting Chinese adventurism when the present trajectory of Taiwan-China relations changes in the spring of 2016, if not sooner. 

China is currently playing nice, because it believes that Taiwan is being drawn inexorably into the fold.  That explains why cross-Strait relations have been calm since Mr. Ma 's election in 2008.  However, if Beijing starts to believe that time is no longer on its side, we can expect behavior more in line with China's aggressiveness toward its other neighbors.

If the U.S. wants to avoid repeating Dean Acheson's mistake of encouraging North Korea to invade the South in 1950, it needs to signal resolve to defend Taiwan.  Taiwan's democratic growing pains should not open the door for further Chinese coercion. 

The U.S. can recalibrate its Taiwan policy by restarting the arms sales to Taiwan that have been stalled for two years.  The first step should be new F-16 C/D fighters, followed by assistance with the procurement of submarines. 

In addition, as Mr. Obama has instructed his cabinet officers to make at least one visit to Asia each year, Taiwan should be a port-of-call for all the economic officers making that trip.  More senior uniformed officers need to visit Taiwan, both to improve communication at the highest levels and offer U.S. support for the MND and its reform efforts.

The Obama administration has been happy with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship under President Ma , especially compared to the turbulence under his predecessor Chen Shui -bian.  But this is because both sides have been content to allow the relationship to drift.  Taiwan asks for little, which the U.S. provides.  This complacency will come back to haunt both nations soon.

Mr. Hammond-Chambers is president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council and managing Director, Taiwan, for the Bower Group Asia.