做空30年債的男人Ackman最新對利率想法摘要 20230922

1.和平不在了。

2.中國輸出通縮不在了。(這點筆者覺得有點要商榷，因為中國在努力恢復通膨，只是中國的貿易路線被切割跟分化)

3.工會起來了(短trade這無奈可理解，但是2024年美國總統如果是川普呢?)

4.不回補戰備原油庫存很危險。(筆者後續會提)

5.沒有任何總統擬參選人看起來有財政紀律。

6.政府三不五時就用違約(default)來跟國會要錢(吵舉債上限)，國外買家怎麼看?

7.政府每周都在賣數十億的債券，過去的買家現在都變成賣家。

8.我們國家發債做基建，所以衰退的預期一直被推遲(現在到2024)。

9.這種經濟背景下以2%為通膨目標相對於15年前金融海嘯後的背景一樣嗎?但是，Powell堅持這目標，代價是不是得衰退，或者根本做不到。(這部分Ackman有道哩，但是講得太有目的性)

10.  全球最大的債券市場投資長說；市場上太多債了。

11.  4%的利率15年沒出現了，但是，這真的是高點嗎?

12.  30年債的殖利率合理價是5.5%，甚至短期可能overshoot。

13.  今天起(9/22)利率又要上路了。

14.  上一個世代(Ackman現在是中年)把5%當成低利率，現在呢?

15.  AI可以拯救我們?

I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions. The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. Workers and unions’ bargaining power continues to rise. Strikes abound, with more likely to come as successful walkouts achieve substantial wage gains. Energy prices are rising rapidly. Not refilling the SPR was a misguided and dangerous mistake. Our strategic assets should never be used to achieve short-term political objectives. Now we must refill the SPR while OPEC and Russia cut production. The green energy transition is and will remain incalculably expensive. And higher gas prices will raise inflationary expectations. Just ask your average American. They see the prices at the pump and in the grocery store and don’t believe inflation is moderating. Our national debt is $33 trillion and rising rapidly. There is no sign of fiscal discipline by either party or by the presumptive presidential nominees. And each debt ceiling is an opportunity for our divided government and its most extreme actors to get media attention, and for our nation to threaten default. This is not a good way to recruit the many new buyers we need for our bonds. The government is selling hundreds of billions of bills, notes and bonds weekly. China and other foreign nations, historically major buyers of our debt, are now selling. And the QT unwind experiment has barely begun. Imagine trying to do a massive IPO where the underwriter, insiders and short sellers are all selling at once, competing to hit every bid on the way down while the analysts downgrade their ratings to ‘Sell.’ Our economy is outperforming expectations. Major infrastructure spending is beginning to contribute to economic growth and the supply of additional debt. Recession predictions have been pushed out beyond 2024. The long-term inflation rate is not going back to 2% no matter how many times Chairman Powell reiterates it as his target. It was arbitrarily set at 2% after the financial crisis in a world very different from the one we live in now. I bumped into the CIO of one of the world’s largest fixed income asset managers the other night and asked him how it was going. He looked like he had had a tough day. He greeted me by saying: ‘There are just too many bonds’ — a veritable tsunami of new issuance each week. I asked him what he was going to do about it. He said: ‘The only thing you can do is step away.’ I have been surprised at how low long-term rates are. I think the best explanation is that bond investors thought of 4% as a high rate of interest because rates hadn’t breached 4% for nearly 15 years. When investors saw the ‘opportunity’ to lock in 4% for 30 years, they grabbed it as a ‘once-in-their-career opportunity,’ but today’s world is very different from the one they have experienced up until now. The long-term inflation rate plus the real rate of interest plus term premium suggests that 5.5% is an appropriate yield for 30-year Treasurys. And query whether 0.5% is a sufficient real long term rate in an increasingly risky world. And the technicals could cause yields to go even higher, particularly in the short term. We saw the beginnings of that today. It wasn’t that long ago that a previous generation thought five percent was a low rate of interest for a long-term, fixed-rate obligation. But I could be wrong. AI might save us.