<h2 class=lexical__h2 dir=ltr><b><strong class=lexical__textBold style=white-space: pre-wrap;>台股大盤動向(截至 06/28 收盤)</strong></b></h2><div class=lexical__image center><div class=lexical__imageWrapper><img src=https://d2a6d2ofes041u.cloudfront.net/resize?compression=6&norotation=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.vocus.cc%2Fd79b98ff-7e44-4c84-abc8-20d09d668b71.png&width=740&sign=Twvv4UDRPdW7j6JFzWTXPzk8QGargbm_FVWyIAgrMrw data-src=https://d2a6d2ofes041u.cloudfront.net/resize?compression=6&norotation=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.vocus.cc%2Fd79b98ff-7e44-4c84-abc8-20d09d668b71.png&width=740&sign=Twvv4UDRPdW7j6JFzWTXPzk8QGargbm_FVWyIAgrMrw class=lazy data-original-src=https://images.vocus.cc/d79b98ff-7e44-4c84-abc8-20d09d668b71.png data-lowquality=true data-width=2172 data-height=462 alt=raw-image></div><div></div></div><ul class=lexical__ul><li value=1 class=lexical__listItem><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>集中市場成交比重電子類高達 71.94%,其次為航運業 4.36%、電機業 3.88%、金融保險業 3.85%、化學生技醫療業 2.89%</span></li></ul><ul class=lexical__ul><li value=1 class=lexical__listItem><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>成交量 4,369 億,外資轉買超 90.77 億,但投信反手賣超 7..75 億,終止連續四天買超</span></li></ul><ul class=lexical__ul><li value=1 class=lexical__listItem><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>成交值前 20 名聚焦在 AI 伺服器、散熱、IC 設計、PA功率放大器、電信</span></li><li value=2 class=lexical__listItem><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>週五在PA、機器人概念、生技、CoWas設備等百花齊放下,櫃買帶量創歷史新高。權值股部分台積電、鴻海、聯發科、廣達、台達電皆在平盤之上,綠電、太陽能休息</span></li></ul><div class=lexical__image center><div class=lexical__imageWrapper><img src=https://d2a6d2ofes041u.cloudfront.net/resize?compression=6&norotation=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.vocus.cc%2F278650e6-2ea4-4b69-af88-19d950ff309f.png&width=740&sign=aJqE8tjVGXWoMza5lFC_pEviP_h3HBVWghilAu7_D2A data-src=https://d2a6d2ofes041u.cloudfront.net/resize?compression=6&norotation=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.vocus.cc%2F278650e6-2ea4-4b69-af88-19d950ff309f.png&width=740&sign=aJqE8tjVGXWoMza5lFC_pEviP_h3HBVWghilAu7_D2A class=lazy data-original-src=https://images.vocus.cc/278650e6-2ea4-4b69-af88-19d950ff309f.png data-lowquality=true data-width=1930 data-height=1386 alt=raw-image></div><div></div></div><div class=lexical__image center><div class=lexical__imageWrapper><img src=https://d2a6d2ofes041u.cloudfront.net/resize?compression=6&norotation=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.vocus.cc%2F598193fc-9a6c-4237-a433-d6fa4936f150.png&width=740&sign=HR7Ej9jXbFpWjHVpZyHXMXlLzPcsonhCC6ZAXO59LAo data-src=https://d2a6d2ofes041u.cloudfront.net/resize?compression=6&norotation=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.vocus.cc%2F598193fc-9a6c-4237-a433-d6fa4936f150.png&width=740&sign=HR7Ej9jXbFpWjHVpZyHXMXlLzPcsonhCC6ZAXO59LAo class=lazy data-original-src=https://images.vocus.cc/598193fc-9a6c-4237-a433-d6fa4936f150.png data-lowquality=true data-width=1928 data-height=1390 alt=raw-image></div><div></div></div><p class=lexical__paragraph dir=ltr><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>(來源 : nstock.tw)</span></p><h2 class=lexical__h2 dir=ltr><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>國際指數&報價動向(截至 06/28 收盤)</span></h2><div class=lexical__image center><div class=lexical__imageWrapper><img src=https://d2a6d2ofes041u.cloudfront.net/resize?compression=6&norotation=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.vocus.cc%2F5ccd84fb-cb11-412d-9ac1-38bf42514ecd.png&width=740&sign=c5lcG9TGDPiW3zFMZMY5C5-J-ecgNZ3dFsX3I4IwNVo data-src=https://d2a6d2ofes041u.cloudfront.net/resize?compression=6&norotation=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.vocus.cc%2F5ccd84fb-cb11-412d-9ac1-38bf42514ecd.png&width=740&sign=c5lcG9TGDPiW3zFMZMY5C5-J-ecgNZ3dFsX3I4IwNVo class=lazy data-original-src=https://images.vocus.cc/5ccd84fb-cb11-412d-9ac1-38bf42514ecd.png data-lowquality=true data-width=2152 data-height=252 alt=raw-image></div><div></div></div><ul class=lexical__ul><li value=1 class=lexical__listItem>、S&P5000 在十日線附近震盪,費半在月線附近震盪</span></li><li value=2 class=lexical__listItem><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>美國十年期公債殖利率 4.392,</span><b><strong class=lexical__textBold style=white-space: pre-wrap;>上揚 2.47%</strong></b></li></ul><ul class=lexical__ul><li value=1 class=lexical__listItem><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>西德州原油(WTI Crude)$81.46/桶,</span><b><strong class=lexical__textBold style=white-space: pre-wrap;>下跌 0.34%</strong></b></li></ul><ul class=lexical__ul><li value=1 class=lexical__listItem><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>黃金 $2336.9/oz,</span><b><strong class=lexical__textBold style=white-space: pre-wrap;>上漲 0.01%</strong></b></li></ul><h2 class=lexical__h2 dir=ltr><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>國際焦點(來源:工商時報)</span></h2><ul class=lexical__ul><li value=1 class=lexical__listItem><a href=https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20240630700008-430702 target=_blank rel=noreferrer noopener>概念股牛市能延續?會不會走上泡沫之路?分析師點出兩大關鍵</span></a></li><li value=2 class=lexical__listItem><a href=https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20240630700030-430702 target=_blank rel=noreferrer noopener><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>川普贏面大?美債淪輸家 3大概念股成美股大贏家</span></a></li><li value=3 class=lexical__listItem><a href=https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20240630700556-430704 target=_blank rel=noreferrer noopener>海力士2028前擬投資2.4兆元 加強AI及晶片業務</span></a></li><li value=4 class=lexical__listItem><a href=https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20240628700140-430704 target=_blank rel=noreferrer noopener>潛能十足!分析師:特斯拉後市仍看俏</span></a></li></ul><h2 class=lexical__h2 dir=ltr><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>台股焦點(來源:工商時報)</span></h2><ul class=lexical__ul><li value=1 class=lexical__listItem><a href=https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20240628701543-430503 target=_blank rel=noreferrer noopener><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>高端產品出貨增 預拌混凝土廠預期今年獲利提升</span></a></li><li value=2 class=lexical__listItem><a href=https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20240628701296-430503 target=_blank rel=noreferrer noopener>連12漲 美東線運價飆破9,000美元大關</span></a></li><li value=3 class=lexical__listItem><a href=https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20240630700057-430503 target=_blank rel=noreferrer noopener><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>盛夏飆高溫 家電股喊熱</span></a></li></ul><h2 class=lexical__h2 dir=ltr><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>我的觀點</span></h2><ul class=lexical__ul><li value=1 class=lexical__listItem><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>上半年加權指數漲幅 29.01%,主要由 AI 伺服器概念股:台積電、鴻海、廣達、聯發科帶動。下半年受美國大選影響預期 Q3 會有震盪,但 GB200 概念股的出貨和營收獲利預期不變下,仍有機會震盪走高</span></li><li value=2 class=lexical__listItem><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>下半年的題材除了已經在發動的 CoWos 設備類股以外,受 HBM 產能排擠效應+消費性電子復甦將帶動 DDR3, DDR4 的報價上漲,可關注低價庫存多的模組廠 - 創見、威剛、十銓,以及有望在 Q3 由虧轉盈的 DRAM 晶圓廠 - 南亞科、華邦電和 IC 設計的晶豪科</span></li><li value=3 class=lexical__listItem><span style=white-space: pre-wrap;>也可關注 AI Pre-training 外的擴散題材,包含應用面的 Interface, 能直覺想到且近一年可帶來獲利的大概是商用軟體的部分,畢竟 ChatGPT 已經讓基礎的日常工作帶來很大的幫助,如果在專業軟體上再加上 AI 的加成,有望在生產效率上讓企業產生很大的採購興趣,就如同疫情讓企業提升了雲端視訊和線上協同作業的需求。除此之外,因應各種不同類型和規模的企業以及資安規範,需要對特定產業情境進行 Fine-tuning 和地端的推論下,像群聯的 aiDAPTIV 這類相對低成本的解決方案,也有機會打入中、小企業和機構的市場。</span></li></ul>