北京沒有戰略，西太平洋誰說了算？●eachouchen（雲程譯）

【Comment】

This response, full of strategic point of view, is from eachouchen.

He describes Vietnam will be “the final pearl of first island chain is completed”. It’s a very interesting point of view. Vietnam establishes its nationalism through communism after WWII. The nation-building process has completed. No more communisms are needed.

However, my point of view is Ma administration is turning Taiwan from “a major non-NATO ally” in the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 to a first pearl of “the String of Pearls” in a second if the chance comes.

Do not forget too many “insiders” here in Taiwan , who has been encouraged by the US for decades since 1979. Taiwan thus would be more difficult to deal with comparing Vietnam, yet the harm will be huge.

Let’s see which pearl prevails.

北京沒有戰略，西太平洋誰說了算？●eachouchen（雲程譯）

這是競逐西太平洋「誰說了算」的序曲。這或許是中國嘴砲的結束。但這只是美國將人民解放軍海軍圈在第一島鍊的開始。

人民解放軍海軍花了許多年才建造許多戰艦並控制函中國海的幾個小島。中國認為人民解放軍海軍是黃海與南中國海，甚至於是西太平洋的老大。即使包括日本在內，現在已經沒有國家敢挑戰其艦隊。人民解放軍海軍說不定是數量最龐大的，但從品質上看，人民解放軍海軍落後日本幾個世代，更不用說落後美國多少了。

人民解放軍海軍的致命弱點是在日本海與黃海的多國海軍演習。他們除了叫囂美國滾出去，或發射幾回飛彈秀秀肌肉之外，束手無策。中國從來沒有一套反制的戰略。最糟糕的是，在國務卿柯林頓訪問河內，以及美國軍艦訪問並與越南海軍進行演習後，中國束手無策。看起來，中國在南中國海的強硬立場正在崩解中。

到底美國在玩什麼把戲？很顯然的，越南該成為美國在南中國海的王牌。美國能任憑越南的老舊軍艦獨自對抗現代化的人民解放軍海軍嗎？美國可以提供幾艘退役軍艦給越南，以將強雙方友誼？假使是這樣，就是完成第一島鍊的最後一顆珍珠。

基於前述事實與推想，難道美國會離開台灣並讓中國以經濟或軍事控制這地方嗎？假使馬與中國試圖以經濟束緊台灣與中國的紐帶，所有的努力將功虧一簣。馬正活生生演一場非常危險的經濟戲碼，他根本不知道他正在露出馬腳。

我們無法預知未來，那就等著看吧！

It is the preface of who is the boss of the West Pacific. It may be the end of the verbal conflict for the PRC. However, it is only the beginning of the first chapter of the US to encircle the People's Revolution Navy within the first island chain.

It takes many years for PRN to build many warships and control several tiny islands at South China Sea . The PRC thinks that PRN is the boss from Yellow Sea to South China Sea and even West Pacific Ocean . No country, even Japan , dares to challenge her fleet now.  Yet, in quantity PRN may have the highest number in the region, but in quality PRN is several generations lag behind Japan not to mention the US .

The weakest part of PRN is exposed in the multiple-nations military exercise in the Japan Sea and Yellow Sea . The only thing PRC can do is to yell the US out of Yellow Sea and fire several rounds of missiles to show her military power. The PRC never shows any military strategy to counter-attack. The worst of all, after the Secretary of State Hilary Clinton visiting Hanoi and the US warships visit and exercise with Vietnam Navy, PRC can do nothing about this matter. It seems that the strong position of PRC at the South China Sea is crumbing.

What kind of game the US is playing? It is obviously that Vietnam should become one strong hold of the US  at the South China Sea . Can the US just leave the shabby Vietnamese warships to fight modernized PRN warships? Is it possible for the US to provide several out-dated warships to Vietnam to strengthen their friendship? If this did happen, the final pearl of first island chain is completed.

Based on the facts and assumptions, is it possible for the US to leave Taiwan alone to be controlled by PRC in economics and military? If Ma and PRC are trying to use economics to tighten Taiwan and China , it would not happen and all will be in vain. Ma is playing very dangerous economical game in the line and does not know he is sticking his head out.

Any way we don't have crystal ball to see the future. Thus, we have to wait until it really happens.