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Story of the struggle between renewable energy, nuclear energy and natural gas
The war between Ukraine and Russia has begun, and an invisible war has also begun on global energy! You may have noticed that the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany along the Baltic Sea continues to be a focus of discussion because Germany needs to import large amounts of natural gas from Russia for electricity/heating.
At the same time, the European Commission issued a revised version of the Sustainable Finance Taxonomy, incorporating nuclear energy and natural gas into the category of "sustainable energy" . Simply put, companies that use nuclear energy and natural gas that meet EU regulations will be recognized as sustainable economic behavior. In the coming months, the European Parliament and the Council will have in-depth discussions, and since the supporting countries account for the majority of the EU, it is generally believed that it will pass.
Many people believe that nuclear power generation is problematic, while most people know that thermal power generation produces high levels of pollution and carbon emissions. Natural gas power generation is also a type of thermal power generation, so how come it is included in the list of sustainable energy? Germany advocates non-nuclearism but at the same time abandons coal. Why does it use natural gas?
The ideal of carbon neutrality is very promising, but the energy reality is bleak.
The ideal of carbon neutrality is very hopeless, but the energy reality is very harsh. Any adjustment in energy policy involves the global layout of energy game, geopolitics and international competition.
In the real world, humans have limited energy options available, which basically include coal, oil, gas and electricity. In the metaverse, we imagine ourselves as creators, but the metaverse also needs electricity. Let’s think about a life situation. If the weather is very cold, I need to turn on the heating at home to maintain a basic healthy temperature (for example, 15 degrees C). I can use coal heating, natural gas heating, electric heater plug-in heating, etc.
Each option has issues with sources, equipment, safety, and environmental protection, and my budget is limited. Finally I had to make a decision. No matter what I chose or a little of everything, the indoor temperature had to be above 15 degrees. There is competition and substitution between energy sources, and the key is to achieve basic goals.
Anti-nuclear Germany needs natural gas to support and "transition" its power system. Even the "power outages" that occurred earlier in mainland China perfectly illustrate the game relationship between various energy options, geopolitics, and the global situation of international competition.
As we all know, the EU has been playing the role of a model student and leader in responding to climate change, advocating and practicing energy transformation, vigorously promoting the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, making oil traders dare not invest heavily in oil and natural gas extraction. But without nuclear energy, the growth of renewable energy is insufficient, and the energy transition has already jeopardized energy security, so buying natural gas from Russia becomes the best option.
The winters in the northern hemisphere have been extremely cold in the past two years, and buyers in Europe, America and Asia have rarely started buying and building up inventories in the summer . In the electricity markets of EU countries, the final price of electricity is linked to the "most expensive fuel price" used to meet expected demand. As a result, expensive natural gas is converted into expensive electricity bills, and people who buy electricity naturally suffer.
Energy policy is not limited to the ideas of leaders and the policy direction of a country, but involves the global layout of energy games, geopolitics and international competition. It's hard to be a hipster when you need other people's natural gas and have to pull additional pipelines. Using global thinking to make pragmatic decisions is a necessity, not an option.
Global thinking, pragmatic decision-making
Do you still think the EU is very political and greenwashing? Please don’t think like this for now, because this is actually “global thinking and pragmatic decision-making.”
First of all, we need to identify the entity within which this decision is made, global? area? nation? County or city? It is obvious that climate change is a global issue, while the supply and use of energy have regional characteristics, are closely related to geopolitics, and there is a game relationship between energy sources.
Next, what is the goal of the decision? The EU believes that the most important and non-negotiable of all goals is to achieve the carbon reduction target. Under this big goal, any cat that can reduce carbon emissions is a good cat, whether it is black or white. Then consider your own constraints, including national economic development goals, corporate survival, social stability, people's livelihood, limited energy options, inconsistent views among countries, opposition from people in various regions, and maintaining the international image of the European Union.
Obviously, the inclusion of nuclear energy and natural gas will cause a certain degree of damage to the overall image, but based on scientific and technological limitations and regional political cooperation considerations, it has become an acceptable political reality.
Those who do not plan for the overall situation are not qualified to plan for a specific area.
The situation in Ukraine has already caused significant fluctuations in global crude oil prices. We are still relying on the old tricks: the electricity price stabilization fund and the oil price cap to cushion the current challenges through the losses of state-owned enterprises. Now we have announced the 2050 net zero emissions target , so what is our global thinking and decision-making model?
There is a characteristic in Taiwan’s social culture: wanting everything at the same time. However, low-price convenience and pollution and carbon emissions often go hand in hand, and freedom comes with responsibility. If I want stable power supply, low electricity prices, environmental protection, low carbon, and non-nuclear electricity, the power plant cannot be built next to my home. It is technically impossible.
We import more than 98% of our energy, our power grid is not connected to other countries, and we cannot buy nuclear power from France like anti-nuclear Germany. The public often opposes nearby power supply facilities. So, if net zero emissions by 2050 becomes the top priority among many goals, to what extent should the other goals in this "multi-objective" decision be compromised to ensure that the decision is "solvable"?
The solution is the same as that of the EU: global thinking and pragmatic decision-making . The essence of carbon neutrality is competition, a global game in which the leaders will be able to set the rules of the game. "He who does not plan for eternity is not qualified to plan for the present; he who does not plan for the overall situation is not qualified to plan for a region."
We need to think about carbon neutrality and net zero emissions from a strategic perspective, plan large systems and corresponding subsystems , acknowledge that it is impossible to achieve all goals at the same time, respect science and engineering expertise, let engineers solve problems, and think clearly about the priority of goals. In the face of the unchanging trend that climate change has become an emergency, we must be able to respond to rapidly changing international economic, trade, and geopolitical situations at any time.
Many of us lived through the energy crisis in the 1970s and witnessed the supply and demand competition and geopolitical diplomatic struggles as various energy resources substituted for each other. Now, a global energy game has started again. In this case, achieving net zero emissions is not easy. It requires pledge, plan, and serious implementation before a report on the results can be published.
Declaring a target does not mean achieving it. A detailed national net-zero emissions roadmap is a basic requirement.
