為什麼華爾街更關心英偉達而非債務上限 | CNN商業

Why Wall Street cares more about Nvidia than the debt ceiling | CNN Business 為什麼華爾街更關心英偉達而非債務上限 | CNN商業

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The debt ceiling debate and possibility that the United States could default on its financial obligations have hung over the heads of investors for nearly six months now. But Wall Street appears to be largely shrugging off the ongoing negotiations as noise, opting instead to focus on a better-than-expected first quarter earnings season. 債務上限辯論和美國可能無法履行其財務義務的可能性已經困擾投資者將近六個月了。但華爾街似乎大多將持續的談判視為噪音，而選擇專注於優於預期的第一季度盈利季節。

What’s happening: There are just three trading days left until Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s June 1 estimate of when the United States needs to raise the debt ceiling or risk being unable to pay some of its bills. Meanwhile, negotiations between President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy remain deadlocked. 發生了什麼事：距離財政部長珍妮特·耶倫（Janet Yellen）預計美國需要提高債務上限或面臨無法支付一些帳單的時間僅剩下三個交易日。與此同時，總統喬·拜登（Joe Biden）和共和黨眾議院議長凱文·麥卡錫（Kevin McCarthy）之間的談判仍然陷入僵局。

Economists have warned that a default would be a catastrophic event: Growth could be squashed, the dollar could lose its status as the global reserve currency and markets could go haywire. 經濟學家警告說，違約將是一個災難性的事件：增長可能會被壓制，美元可能會失去其作為全球儲備貨幣的地位，市場可能會失控。

But investors chose to celebrate a strong earnings report by semiconductor company Nvidia (NVDA) on Thursday instead of worrying over the debt ceiling. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7% after the company, which makes chips used in artificial intelligence, saw its shares soar nearly 25% as it beat earnings expectations and posted strong guidance for the year ahead. 投資者選擇慶祝半導體公司Nvidia（NVDA）周四的強勁盈利報告，而不是擔心債務上限。這家公司生產用於人工智能的晶片，其股票因擊敗盈利預期並發布強勁的未來指引而飆升近25％，科技股重量級指數納斯達克綜合指數上漲了1.7％。

The surge in share price means that Nvidia is now just a hair away from reaching $1 trillion in market capitalization. 股價的激增意味著英偉達現在離達到1萬億美元的市值只有一步之遙。

Other chip makers benefited from Nvidia’s climb. AMD (AMD) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) rose 11% and 12% on Thursday respectively. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) gained 8.6%. 其他晶片製造商從英偉達的上漲中受益。 AMD和台積電分別在星期四上漲了11％和12％。 VanEck半導體ETF（SMH）上漲了8.6％。

“All that matters for markets is the trajectory of corporate profits,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group, in a note. "The Bahnsen Group的首席投資官David Bahnsen在一份筆記中表示：“對於市場來說，唯一重要的是企業利潤的軌跡。”

“Our main message to investors is to ignore the debt ceiling noise and pursue investments that provide growing cash flows,” he added. 他補充說：“我們向投資者傳達的主要訊息是忽略債務上限的噪音，追求提供不斷增長現金流的投資。”

Nearly every S&P 500 company has reported first quarter earnings at this point and about 78% of them have had earnings-per-share come in higher than analyst estimates, according to Factset data. S&P 500 companies are on track to record their best performance relative to analyst expectations since the fourth quarter of 2021. 幾乎每一家S&P 500公司在這個時候都已經公佈了第一季度的盈利報告，根據Factset的數據，其中約有78%的公司的每股盈利高於分析師的預估。S&P 500公司正朝著相對於分析師預期表現最佳的方向前進，這是自2021年第四季度以來的情況。

Very few executives are discussing the debt ceiling as a potential headwind on earnings calls, reported FactSet. The term “debt ceiling” had been cited on the calls of just 13 companies in the S&P 500 between March 15 and May 18. 據FactSet報導，很少有高管在盈利電話會議上討論債務上限作為可能的阻礙。在3月15日至5月18日期間，僅有S&P 500指數中的13家公司在電話會議上提到了“債務上限”一詞。

“Solid earnings results compared with expectations have helped keep stocks afloat in recent weeks amid debt ceiling jitters, regional bank concerns, and louder calls for recession,” said Jeffrey Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial. "LPL Financial 的首席股票策略師 Jeffrey Buchbinder 表示：與預期相比的穩健收益結果有助於在最近幾周的債務上限焦慮、地區銀行擔憂和更強烈的經濟衰退呼聲中維持股市的浮動。"

The bottom line: Yesterday, we reported about a “market vibe shift” where investors were waking up to the serious consequences of a possible default on US debt. And while there is more stock market volatility because of the brinkmanship in Washington, traders still seem to be prioritizing company fundamentals over political events. At least for now. 底線：昨天，我們報導了一個「市場氛圍轉變」，投資者正在意識到可能發生的美國債務違約的嚴重後果。儘管華盛頓的僵局導致股市更加波動，但交易員似乎仍然將公司基本面置於政治事件之上。至少目前是這樣。

While US equities have been somewhat resilient to the debt ceiling drama, bonds haven’t had the same luck. 盡管美國股票市場對債務上限問題有些抵抗力，但債券市場卻沒有同樣的運氣。

Treasury yields, which move in the opposite direction to prices, have been on the rise as concerns over the US debt ceiling grow more serious. 隨著對美國債務上限的擔憂日益嚴重，與價格相反的國庫券收益率一直在上升。

The yield on the one-month Treasury bill, which is particularly sensitive to the debt ceiling crisis, rose past 6% on Thursday, and in the past week yields on 2- and 10-year Treasury notes hit their highest levels since March. 特別敏感於債務上限危機的一個月期國庫券收益率於星期四上升至6%以上，而在過去一週中，2年期和10年期國庫券的收益率達到自3月以來的最高水平。

“If there were an actual payment default, based just on the size and the scale of the amount of US Treasuries that are outstanding, I do think that this could be something that could hit the markets pretty hard,” said Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar. “如果實際上發生付款違約，僅基於美國國債的規模和數量，我認為這可能會對市場造成相當大的打擊，”晨星公司首席美國市場策略師戴夫·塞克拉（Dave Sekera）表示。

So what should an investor do? Sit tight, said Sekera. 那投資者該怎麼辦？Sekera說，保持不動。

“For investors that do own US Treasuries, I don’t think you’re going to end up suffering any loss of principal, and I fully expect that once the debt ceiling gets raised, you will get your principal and interest,” he said. “I could even see the US government paying you any extra interest until you get that principal payment back.” 「對於持有美國國債的投資者，我認為您不會遭受任何本金損失，並且我完全期待一旦提高債務上限，您將獲得本金和利息，」他說。「我甚至可以看到美國政府支付您任何額外的利息，直到您收回本金。」

Still, Sekera cautioned, “there’s really no way to know exactly what would happen, and I don’t think anyone really can understand the full ramifications of it right now.” 然而，Sekera警告說，“沒有辦法確切知道會發生什麼，我認為現在沒有人真正能夠理解其全部影響。”

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) informed about 1,000 First Republic Bank employees on Thursday that they will no longer have jobs, reports my colleague Matt Egan. 據我的同事Matt Egan報導，JPMorgan Chase（JPM）於星期四通知約1,000名First Republic Bank員工將不再有工作。

JPMorgan acquired most of First Republic’s assets earlier this month after the San Francisco-based regional bank was seized by the government. It marked the second-biggest bank failure in US history. 摩根大通本月早些時候收購了第一共和銀行的大部分資產，此前這家總部位於舊金山的地區性銀行被政府接管。這是美國歷史上第二大銀行破產。

A JPMorgan spokesperson told CNN that the bank updated all First Republic employees on Thursday about their future employment status and the vast majority — or nearly 85% — have been offered a transitional or full-time role. JP摩根的一位發言人告訴CNN，該銀行於週四向所有第一共和國的員工更新了他們未來的就業狀況，絕大多數（近85％）已獲得過渡或全職職位的提供。

That leaves 15%, or about 1,000, First Republic employees who are not receiving an employment offer. 這意味著還有15％，約1,000名第一共和國的員工沒有收到就業邀請。

JPMorgan said the company’s May 1 deal with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to buy most of First Republic did not include all of the company’s employees. 摩根大通表示，該公司與聯邦存款保險公司於5月1日達成的收購First Republic的協議並未包括該公司的所有員工。

“We’ve been transparent with their employees and kept our promise to update them on their employment status within 30 days,” JPMorgan said in a statement. “We recognize that they have been under stress and uncertainty since March and hope that today will bring clarity and closure.” 「我們對員工保持透明，並遵守承諾在30天內更新他們的就業狀況，」JP摩根在聲明中表示。「我們認識到自三月以來，他們一直處於壓力和不確定性之中，希望今天能帶來明確和結束。」

新聞來源: CNN (#國際新聞)

原文網址:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/26/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html