五月份的就業市場表現良好。但聯邦儲備委員會可能已經決定暫停。| CNN商業

五月份的就業報告主要顯示勞動力市場保持穩定。勞工統計局上週五報告，上個月雇主新增了強勁的33.9萬個工作崗位，但失業率從3.4%上升至3.7%，這是自2020年4月以來最大的月度增幅。自2022年3月Fed開始加息以來，已經連續加息10次，但就業市場仍然穩健，即使其他部分經濟，如房屋，在某些地區已經出現了問題。這對美國工人來說是好消息，但對通脹是好還是壞，仍有待觀察。

從就業數據的角度來看呈現一個沒有明顯判斷轉弱或轉強的情形。六月可能會暫停加息，但後續的還是要依數據公布來做判斷。

The job market held up in May. But the Fed may have already decided to pause | CNN Business 五月份的就業市場表現良好。但聯邦儲備委員會可能已經決定暫停。| CNN商業

Washington, DCCNN  —  華盛頓特區CNN —

The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. But Federal Reserve officials are still likely to suspend rate hikes in their upcoming policy meeting because of broader trends pointing to a weakened economy later in the year. 美國勞動力市場在五月份加速增長，再次打破了放緩的預期。但由於更廣泛的趨勢指向今年晚些時候經濟疲軟，聯邦儲備委員會官員仍然可能在即將舉行的政策會議上暫停加息。

The debate over suspending rate increases or hiking yet again later this month has remained intense, and May’s robust jobs report certainly makes it even more difficult to decipher what’s going on in the economy, but there seems to be enough of an argument for Fed officials to defend a pause, or a “skip,” in rate increases when they meet on June 13-14. 暫停加息或本月晚些時候再次加息的辯論仍然激烈，五月份強勁的就業報告使得經濟形勢更加難以解讀，但似乎有足夠的理由讓聯邦儲備委員會官員在6月13日至14日舉行的會議上辯護暫停加息或“跳過”加息。

That would snap a streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes that raised the central bank’s benchmark lending rate to a range of 5-5.25%, the highest level in more than 15 years. 這將打破連續10次加息的紀錄，這些加息將中央銀行的基準貸款利率提高到5-5.25％的範圍，這是15年來最高水平。

Some officials have said a pause would allow them to assess the impacts of the central bank’s most aggressive rate-hiking campaign since the 1980s and some have also cautioned of additional factors expected to further slow economic activity, such as tougher lending standards, along with other lagged effects of tighter monetary policy. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. 一些官員表示，暫停可以讓他們評估自1980年代以來央行最激進的加息行動所帶來的影響，一些人還警告說，預計還會有其他因素進一步減緩經濟活動，例如更嚴格的貸款標準以及更緊縮的貨幣政策的滯後效應。包括聯邦儲備委員會在內的許多經濟學家仍然預計今年晚些時候會出現經濟衰退。

That’s essentially the argument for a pause. President Joe Biden’s pick to be the Fed’s second-in-command said as much on Wednesday, but cautioned that it doesn’t mean the Fed can’t resume rate increases if needed. 這基本上是暫停的論點。美國總統拜登提名的聯邦儲備委員會副主席在週三表示了這一點，但警告說，這並不意味著聯邦儲備委員會不能在需要時恢復加息。

“A decision to hold our policy rate constant at a coming meeting should not be interpreted to mean that we have reached the peak rate for this cycle,” said Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson at a conference in Washington, DC, this week. “Indeed, skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the Committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy firming.” 聯邦儲備委員會成員菲利普·傑佛遜在本週華盛頓特區的一次會議上表示：“決定在即將舉行的會議上將我們的政策利率保持不變，不應被解釋為我們已經達到了本周期的峰值利率。”“事實上，在即將舉行的會議上跳過加息將使委員會在決定進一步政策收緊程度之前看到更多的數據。”

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker echoed Jefferson’s view this week that it would be appropriate to vote for a pause in June because of factors already pulling on the economy’s reins. 費城聯邦儲備銀行行長帕特里克·哈克本週重申傑斐遜的觀點，認為由於已經對經濟產生影響的因素，投票支持在六月暫停是合適的。

“I do believe that we are close to the point where we can hold rates in place and let monetary policy do its work to bring inflation back to the target in a timely manner,” Harker said Thursday during a moderated virtual discussion hosted by the National Association for Business Economics. “We should at least skip this meeting in terms of an increase. We can let some of these things resolve themselves, at least to the extent they can, before we consider — at all — another increase.” 哈克（Harker）在國家商業經濟學協會主持的一次線上討論中表示：“我確信我們已經接近這樣一個點，即我們可以保持利率不變，讓貨幣政策發揮作用，及時將通脹帶回目標水平。至少在這次會議上，我們應該跳過加息。在我們考慮進一步加息之前，我們可以讓一些問題自行解決，至少在它們可以解決的範圍內。”

It’s still possible that the Fed could hike rates later this month, mostly if the latest Consumer Price Index to be released on the first day of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting shows that inflation accelerated in May. Some officials have expressed concern recently that inflationary pressures persist — but it seems like those with a dovish approach have built a strong case for a pause. 如果本月初公佈的最新消費者物價指數顯示通脹在五月加速，聯邦儲備委員會仍有可能在本月晚些時候加息。一些官員最近表示擔憂通脹壓力仍然存在，但似乎那些持鴿派立場的人已經為暫停加息建立了一個有力的案例。

“This report shouldn’t really tilt the decision one way or another, and it should give the Fed another reason to be data dependent and look at the totality of the data that comes in before they have to make a decision,” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist, told CNN. 「這份報告不應該真正傾向於任何一方，而且它應該給聯邦儲備委員會另一個理由成為數據依賴型，並在他們必須做出決定之前查看所有數據的總體情況，」ZipRecruiter的首席經濟學家朱莉婭·波拉克告訴CNN。

The May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Employers added a robust 339,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, though the unemployment rate climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%, the largest month-over-month increase since April 2020. Job openings rose to 10.1 million in April, after declining for three months in a row, the BLS reported earlier this week. 五月份的就業報告主要顯示勞動力市場保持穩定。勞工統計局上週五報告，上個月雇主新增了強勁的33.9萬個工作崗位，但失業率從3.4%上升至3.7%，這是自2020年4月以來最大的月度增幅。勞工統計局本週早些時候報告稱，四月份的職位空缺增加到了1010萬個，這是連續三個月下降後的回升。

Despite 10 consecutive rate increases since the Fed began to lift rates in March 2022, the job market has remained solid even as other parts of the economy, such as housing, have buckled in some areas. That’s good news for American workers, but the jury is still out on whether that’s a good or bad thing for inflation. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. 自2022年3月Fed開始加息以來，已經連續加息10次，但就業市場仍然穩健，即使其他部分經濟，如房屋，在某些地區已經出現了問題。這對美國工人來說是好消息，但對通脹是好還是壞，仍有待觀察。一些頂尖經濟學家認為，強勁的勞動力市場對通脹產生了輕微但日益增長的影響。

“If you’ve talked to CEOs, you’d know they largely agree that there was a significant inflation issue about a year ago, but that has really moderated over the last year even as the labor market remains pretty tight,” said Dave Gilbertson, a labor economist at UKG. “That would suggest that the labor market hasn’t had nearly as big of an effect on inflation as the supply-chain disruptions about two years ago.” 「如果你曾與CEO交談，你會知道他們大多同意大約一年前存在重大通脹問題，但在過去一年中這個問題已經得到了很大的緩解，即使勞動力市場仍然相當緊張，」UKG的勞動經濟學家戴夫·吉爾伯特森表示。「這表明，勞動力市場對通脹的影響遠不及大約兩年前的供應鏈中斷。」

A recent paper co-authored by former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke argued that an economic downturn would be necessary to address the labor market’s minor but persistent influence on inflation, which has indeed cooled in the long run. 由前聯邦儲備委員會主席本·伯南克共同撰寫的最近一篇論文認為，經濟下行將是解決勞動力市場對通脹的輕微但持續影響的必要手段，而通脹在長期內確實有所降溫。

And inflation might cool even further because of slowing shelter costs, which make up more than 40% of the Consumer Price Index’s core measure. 通膨可能進一步降溫，因為住房成本放緩，佔消費者物價指數核心指標的40%以上。

“Some of that data should certainly start to filter through in the next month or two,” Jack Macdowell, chief investment officer at The Palisades Group, told CNN. “It will be really interesting to see what type of impact owners’ equivalent rent is going to have on inflation because that is definitely a lagged effect.” "The Palisades Group 的首席投資官傑克·麥克道爾告訴CNN：“這些數據中的一些肯定會在接下來的一兩個月中開始過濾出來。”“看到業主等價租金對通脹產生什麼樣的影響將非常有趣，因為這絕對是一個滯後效應。”"

But what about that uptick in the latest reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge? The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 4.4% for the 12 months ended in April, up from a 4.2% increase seen in March, as consumer spending also jumped 0.8% that month. 但是，聯邦儲備委員會偏好的通膨衡量指標最新讀數的上升呢？截至4月份的個人消費支出物價指數上升了4.4％，較3月份的4.2％增加有所提高，當月消費者支出也增加了0.8％。

Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, one of the Federal Open Market Committee’s most hawkish voices, advocated for two more rate hikes during a moderated discussion last week. But in an analysis written by Bullard on the St. Louis Fed’s website published Thursday, the St. Louis Fed chief struck a more balanced tone for inflation’s descent in the future. 鷹派的聯邦儲備委員會官員仍然認為聯邦儲備委員會的工作尚未完成。聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行總裁詹姆斯·布拉德是聯邦公開市場委員會中最鷹派的聲音之一，上週在一次主持的討論中主張再加息兩次。但在布拉德上週四在聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行網站上發表的一篇分析中，聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行行長對未來通脹的下降採取了更加平衡的態度。

“The prospects for continued disinflation are good but not guaranteed, and continued vigilance is required,” he wrote. 他寫道：“持續通脹趨勢的前景良好，但並非保證，需要繼續保持警惕。”

If the CPI reading for May shows that inflation accelerated or stalled that month, that may just tilt the scale in favor of the FOMC’s hawks. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell did say that “the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy.” 如果五月份的CPI數據顯示通脹加速或停滯，這可能只會使FOMC的鷹派更有優勢。但聯邦儲備委員會主席鮑威爾表示，“將通脹率降回2％的過程還有很長的路要走，可能會很崎嶇。”

The Fed is at a pivotal point in its current war on inflation, which means that some FOMC members might start dissenting as soon as the June policy meeting. 聯邦儲備委員會在目前的通脹戰爭中處於關鍵時刻，這意味著一些FOMC成員可能會在六月的政策會議上開始持異議。

“As you come to turning points, there’s always somebody who doesn’t want to carry along with it, so yes, I think (dissenting) is characteristic of the Fed when opinions are shifting, so I think that is quite likely,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a webinar this week. 當你到達轉折點時，總會有人不想跟隨，所以我認為（異議）在聯邦儲備委員會意見轉變時是一種特徵，因此我認為這是相當可能的。這是Pantheon Macroeconomics的首席經濟學家Ian Shepherdson在本週的網絡研討會上說的話。

Members can dissent because they think the central bank should pause rates or hike at a different pace. At this point, the Fed’s decisions aren’t as easy or clear cut as when inflation was obviously running red hot last summer, economists said. 會員可以持異議，因為他們認為中央銀行應該暫停利率或以不同的步伐上漲。經濟學家表示，此時聯邦儲備委員會的決定並不像去年夏天通脹明顯飆升時那樣容易或明確。

Still, it doesn’t mean they haven’t already been debating with their counterparts. But the optics of not eventually reaching a unanimous decision might be problematic for the central bank’s credibility. 然而，這並不意味著他們還沒有與他們的同行進行辯論。但最終未能達成一致決定的形象可能會對中央銀行的信譽造成問題。

“There is usually no dissent in terms of policy moves, and in terms of confidence, they have to show that their agreement is unanimous because then the markets are going to start to second guess them,” said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James. "通常在政策行動方面不會有異議，而在信心方面，他們必須表現出他們的一致同意，因為那樣市場就會開始對他們產生疑問，" Raymond James的首席經濟學家Eugenio Alemán說道。

新聞來源: CNN (#國際新聞)

原文網址:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/02/economy/fed-jobs-report-pause/index.html