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- 關於我對Upstart(UPST)的基本看法，可在索引檔案找到。
上一季看了UPST的2022Q4財報，其實還滿絕望的，財報之慘烈，如果不是我持股比例甚低，大概也很難撐到現在。沒想到短短一季之後，2023Q1財報似乎顯示出最艱難的時期已經過去。財報發布後，盤前UPST的股價也大幅反彈。
如果只看2023Q1的數據，當然也不是說非常理想。包括Q1營收只有103M，較上一季2022Q4的147M再大幅衰退30%。毛利率只有61%。Adjusted EBITDA Margin虧損幅度擴大到30%，EPS虧損也擴大到0.47。
營業現金流繼續流出，帳上現金（Cash only）減少到剩下387M。
同時，業務繼續萎縮。貸款數跌破100K，收縮到剩84K，轉換率跌到8%，甚至比疫情期間也還要低。這是因為消費者的違約率較2021年中期多2到3倍，UPST必須將風險計算到價格當中，令貸款利率大幅上漲多達15%至20%，部分人的年利率門檻已經推高到了36%。在這種狀況下，自然會減少獲得批准的借款人，而即使有些人獲得批准，他們可能最終也因為利率太高的關係而選擇放棄。
And because of that change in pricing, 2 things are happening. One is a lot less borrowers are getting approved, right? So a lot of them are being pushed above the 36% APR threshold. And then even for those who are still getting approved, their prices are a lot higher and maybe less predisposed to taking the loan. So those 2 things combined have resulted in the contracting conversion rate.
本季會受到市場歡迎的數字，可能就只有資產負債表上的貸款項目，管理層確實兌現了他們在上一季說的話，即把天花底設在10億美元左右，不再逾越。本季的貸款數字是過去兩年間首次看到下降，從1010M調整到982M。
I think that we, I think, continue to think of the balance sheet along the lines of the parameters we've expressed the market, which is there's a certain number we won't go above, and that's probably roughly where we were last quarter. We also sort of said in our remarks that there is a transaction that did not complete in Q1, but we expect it to complete in Q2, and that will bring our balance sheet down next quarter. Now from there, we may sort of continue to use the balance sheet as a platform tool. But I think that you'll probably see us remain sort of in a volume where we are sort of peaking at the $1 billion range and then ebbing or flowing from there based on whether we're transacting or accumulating.
不過，目前UPST的股價漲成那樣，當然不僅僅是因為資產負債表的貸款項目似乎已經「見頂」而已，我覺得還有以下四個原因。
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