聯邦儲備局的利率暫停將如何影響美元？| CNN 商業

How will the Federal Reserve's rate hike pause affect the dollar? | CNN Business 聯邦儲備局的利率暫停將如何影響美元？| CNN 商業

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On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve hit pause on its benchmark interest rate after hiking 10 times in a row in a battle to cool the US economy and tame inflation. 週三，美聯儲在連續10次加息後，暫停了其基準利率的調整，以抑制美國經濟的過熱和控制通脹。

That rate-hiking campaign has also done something else: helped pump up the US dollar, maintaining an unexpected strength that reverberates across the economy. However, with the Fed’s pause, many experts believe the dollar’s muscle could start to give out. 這次加息行動還有另一個效果：幫助推升美元，保持了出人意料的強勁，對整個經濟產生了回響。然而，隨著聯儲局的暫停，許多專家認為美元的實力可能會開始衰退。

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six other currencies, has fallen since hitting a 20-year high in September, but it’s still trading at near multi-year highs. 美元指數追蹤美元對其他六種貨幣的表現，自九月份創下20年新高以來，已經有所下跌，但仍然在接近多年高位的水平上交易。

“Given the fact that the Fed has raised interest rates in the US at the fastest pace in about 40 years… that’s attracted flows, which has helped keep the dollar strong,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, told CNN. 摩根士丹利財富管理首席投資官麗莎·沙萊特告訴CNN：“考慮到美聯儲以近40年來最快的速度提高了美國的利率... 這吸引了資金流入，有助於保持美元的强勢。”

The ripple effect of a robust dollar permeates various parts of the economic picture, from international trade to tourism. 一個強勁的美元所帶來的漣漪效應在經濟畫面的各個方面都能感受到，從國際貿易到旅遊業。

For one, a strong dollar directly impacts the cost of importing goods. Products made in foreign countries become cheaper, relative to American-made goods. That benefits customers of big box stores, like Walmart, that sell foreign-made goods. Even as the United States experiences inflation, these products stay relatively cheaper, Shalett said. 首先，強勢美元直接影響進口商品的成本。相對於美國製造的商品，外國製造的產品變得更便宜。這對於像沃爾瑪這樣出售外國製造商品的大型連鎖店的顧客來說是有利的。即使美國正在經歷通脹，這些產品仍然相對便宜，Shalett說道。

“One of the underappreciated dimensions of a strong dollar is that it weighs on inflation,” she said. 她說：“人們往往低估了強勢美元對通膨的影響。”

However, there are downsides to the dollar’s strength: US-made goods look more expensive in comparison to cheaper imports, reducing US exports, according to Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 然而，美元走强也存在一些不利因素：根據國際經濟研究所高級研究員约瑟夫·加尼昂的说法，美國制造的商品與更便宜的進口商品相比顯得更加昂貴，從而减少了美國的出口量。

“When US companies aren’t exporting as much, that means they’re not producing as much, so they don’t need as many workers,” he said. 他說：“當美國公司的出口减少時，意味著他们的生產也减少了，所以他們就不需要那麼多的工人。”

That’s not the only way a strong dollar may hurt American workers and businesses, according to Gagnon. 根據加尼昂的說法，強勢美元可能對美國的工人和企業造成的影響不僅僅是這一方面。

While Americans may find trips abroad relatively cheaper during times of dollar strength, tourism to the United States may take a hit. 當美元走強時，美國人可能會發現出國旅行相對便宜，但對美國的旅遊業可能會受到影響。

“It makes it more expensive for foreigners to come to the US, which reduces demand for US restaurants, hotels and attractions,” Gagnon said. 「這使得外國人來美國變得更加昂貴，進而減少對美國餐廳、酒店和景點的需求，」加尼昂表示。

The US dollar is often called a “safe haven currency” for its perceived stability. According to the Federal Reserve, it is the most used currency in foreign transactions. 美元常被稱為「避險貨幣」，因其被認為具有穩定性。根據美聯儲的數據，美元是國際交易中使用最廣泛的貨幣。

Its recent persistent strength, even as the central bank attempts to tamp down the US economy, has surprised some who track the currency. 最近美元的持續強勢，即使中央銀行試圖抑制美國經濟，也讓一些跟蹤貨幣的人感到驚訝。

“The US dollar has been very strong because the US economy has been very strong — relatively stronger than most other economies,” Gagnon said. 「美元一直很強勁，因為美國經濟一直很強勁，相對於大多數其他經濟體而言」，加尼昂表示。

Relative weakness in European and Asian economies has also added investors’ appetite for the dollar, according to Gagnon. 根據Gagnon的說法，歐洲和亞洲經濟的相對疲軟也增加了投資者對美元的興趣。

Wall Street doesn’t expect the dollar’s rally to continue forever, though. 華爾街並不期望美元的漲勢會持續下去，然而。

In a note to investors, Goldman Sachs recently said it estimates a “bumpy downside” for the dollar in the second half of this year and into 2024. Deutsche Bank told investors it expects “medium-term weakness” in the dollar, citing “an eventual dovish Fed pivot to easing,” followed by rate cuts next year. 高盛最近在给投資者的一份備忘錄中表示，他们預計美元在今年下半年和2024年將會出现“顛頗的下行”。德意志銀行告訴投資者，他们預計美元將會出現“中期的疲軟”，並指出“美聯儲最終會採取鴿派政策進行寬鬆”，隨後在明年進行降息。

Not all experts agree that the conditions are ripe for a weaker dollar just yet. 並非所有專家都認為现在是美元走弱的時機。

“I don’t see anything on the horizon that would weaken the dollar,” Gagnon said. 「我看不到任何會削弱美元的事情出現在地平線上。」加尼昂說道。

But, in the longer term, several developments could challenge the US dollar’s supremacy, according to Shalett. 然而，根據沙萊特的說法，從長遠来看，幾個因素可能會對美元的霸主地位構成挑戰。

She pointed to the United States’ growing debt levels and a potential shrinking appetite from foreign investors in US debt, along with increasing talk of “dedollarization,” meaning countries reducing their reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency. 她指出了美國不斷增長的債務水平，以及外國投資者對美國債務的潛在減少興趣，還有越來越多關於「去美元化」的討論，這意味著各國減少對美元作為儲備貨幣的依賴。

新聞來源: CNN (#國際新聞)

原文網址:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/15/economy/fed-impact-on-strong-dollar/index.html