美聯儲本週將召開會議，投資者可以期待什麼？| CNN商業

CNN  — 

Stocks have just come off a seemingly auspicious week — but could the Federal Reserve’s June meeting dampen the rally?
股市剛剛度過了一個看似吉祥的週期，但聯邦儲備委員會六月份的會議會否打擊這波漲勢？

The S&P 500 Index last week entered a bull market, meaning that it notched a 20% rally from its low in October. The Nasdaq Composite saw its longest streak of weekly gains since November 2019, powered by mega-cap tech stocks that have led the market higher in 2023.
上週標普500指數進入牛市，意味著自10月份低點以來上漲了20%。那斯達克綜合指數則因為科技巨頭股票的推動，創下自2019年11月以來的最長週漲幅。這些科技巨頭股票在2023年帶領市場上漲。

Moreover, investors appeared calmer than they have in years, after the United States suspended the debt ceiling in time to avoid a default, allowing investors to breathe a sigh of relief. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, last Thursday closed at its lowest level since January 2020. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index reached “extreme greed” on Thursday.
此外，投資者似乎比多年來更冷靜，因為美國及時暫停債務上限以避免違約，讓投資者松了一口氣。芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數（VIX）上週四收盤時達到自2020年1月以來的最低水平。CNN的恐懼與貪婪指數於上週四達到“極端貪婪”水平。

The stock market’s next test will be the Fed’s meeting on June 13 and June 14. Markets see a roughly 71% probability of a pause, according to the CME FedWatch Tool as of Friday afternoon.
股市的下一個考驗將是聯邦儲備委員會於6月13日和6月14日的會議。根據CME FedWatch工具，截至上週五下午，市場認為有大約71％的概率會暫停。

The May Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports, two key inflation prints, are also due the days that the Fed meets. While these readings, particularly the CPI, are generally seen as key indicators for how the data-dependent central bank will shape its monetary policy, investors are less concerned about how they will impact the Fed’s rate decision this time around.
五月份的消費者物價指數和生產者物價指數報告，是兩個關鍵的通脹指標，也是聯邦儲備委員會會議期間公佈的。儘管這些數據，特別是消費者物價指數，通常被視為衡量數據依賴型中央銀行制定貨幣政策的關鍵指標，但投資者對它們對聯邦儲備委員會這次的利率決策影響不太關心。

“Unless that number is wildly away from expectations, I don’t think the Fed changes their minds on anything,” said JJ Kinahan, chief executive of IG North America.
「除非那個數字與預期相差甚大，否則我認為聯邦儲備委員會不會改變任何決定。」IG北美區執行長JJ Kinahan表示。

That’s because Fed officials have indicated that they are likely to skip a hike in June. That’s different from a pause, since it suggests that the central bank could raise rates as soon as July after taking a break this month. Futures traders see a 53% chance of a July hike, though there’s also a roughly 31% chance of a pause that month, as of Friday afternoon.
這是因為聯邦官員已經表示他們可能會跳過六月份的加息。這與暫停不同，因為它表明中央銀行可能會在本月休息後，於七月立即加息。期貨交易員認為七月加息的機會為53％，但截至周五下午，該月暫停的機會也約為31％。

Because the Fed has made its intentions clear, the rate decision itself is unlikely to move markets, says Karim El Nokali, investment strategist at Schroders. He adds that there are still some factors that could help drive stocks higher next week, such as cool inflation prints or more dovish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the post-meeting press conference.
施羅德投資策略師Karim El Nokali表示，由於美聯儲已經明確表明了其意圖，利率決定本身不太可能影響市場。他補充說，仍有一些因素可能有助於推動下週股市上漲，例如通脹數據較為平穩或美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾在會後記者招待會上發表更具鴿派色彩的評論。

But that also means Fed talk that hints at further tightening could dampen the market’s rally.
但這也意味著聯邦儲備委員會暗示進一步收緊政策的談話可能會抑制市場的漲勢。

“If the market took it as it is particularly hawkish, that would definitely be an excuse to see a bit of a sell-off here,” El Nokali said.
"如果市場認為這是特別鷹派的，那肯定是看到一些抛售的藉口，" El Nokali 說道。

Moreover, markets on June 16 are due for a “quadruple witching,” which is when options and futures on indexes and stocks expire simultaneously.
此外，6月16日的市場將迎來“四重巫婆”，這是指指數和股票期權和期貨同時到期。

That could inject some volatility into the market near the end of the week, said Kinahan.
Kinahan表示，這可能會在本週末給市場注入一些波動性。

While the United States earlier this month avoided breaching the debt ceiling, its close brush with potential economic and financial catastrophe — along with the possibility of a credit downgrade — has resurfaced a perennial question: Is there a viable alternative to the quintessential safe asset, US Treasuries?
本月初，美國避免了突破債務上限的危機，但其接近經濟和金融災難的經驗，以及可能面臨信用評級下調的風險，再次引發了一個長期存在的問題：是否存在一種可行的替代品，能夠取代典型的安全資產——美國國債？

The short answer, according to most investors, is no.
根據大多數投資者的看法，簡短的回答是否定的。

President Joe Biden on June 3 finally signed into law a bill suspending the United States’ $31.4 trillion debt limit through January 1, 2025, putting to bed weeks of concerns that the nation could default on its debt.
2021年6月3日，美國總統喬·拜登終於簽署了一項法案，暫停美國的31.4萬億美元債務上限，直到2025年1月1日，結束了數周來對國家可能會違約的擔憂。

But the United States could still suffer a downgrade to its credit rating, even though it avoided losing its ability to make payments on time. Fitch Ratings warned earlier this month that it is keeping the country on watch for a potential downgrade by the end of September.
然而，即使美國避免了失去按時支付的能力，它仍然可能遭受信用評級下調的打擊。惠譽評級公司本月早些時候警告稱，他們正在觀察美國，可能在九月底之前對其進行下調評級。

It’s unlikely, however, that the loss of the coveted AAA rating from Fitch would impact Treasuries’ status as the safe asset’s poster child. In fact, Treasuries are so irreplaceable as a haven that a credit downgrade could actually spark a rally, said Benjamin Jeffery, vice president of rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
然而，費卓評級機構對美國國債的AAA評級損失不太可能影響國債作為安全資產的代表地位。事實上，國債作為避風港的地位是無可替代的，因此信用評級下調實際上可能會引發一波反彈，BMO資本市場利率策略副總裁本傑明·傑弗里表示。

While seemingly counterintuitive, that’s what happened in 2011, when the United States nearly defaulted on its debt and Standard & Poor’s downgraded America’s credit rating.
儘管看似違反直覺，但這就是2011年發生的事情，當時美國幾乎違約償還債務，標準普爾下調了美國的信用評級。

That’s because investors are conditioned to seek safety during times of market turbulence. Treasuries are perceived globally as one of the world’s most risk-free, if not the most risk-free, assets — and the United States nearly defaulting on debt has done little to change that.
這是因為投資者在市場動盪時習慣尋求安全。國債被全球認為是世界上最無風險的資產之一，如果不是最無風險的，而美國幾乎違約付款對此幾乎沒有影響。

In other words, “any credit rating movement would be more of an embarrassment to the US than an impact to investors,” said Patrick Klein, portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income.
換句話說，富蘭克林泰晤士固定收益投資組合經理帕特里克·克萊恩表示：“任何信用評級變動對美國的影響更多的是尷尬，而不是對投資者的影響。”

Several reasons underscore Treasuries’ pristine reputation, including that no other country has a currency market that is as liquid, large or highly rated as that of the United States.
美國國債享有卓越聲譽的原因有幾個，其中包括沒有其他國家的貨幣市場像美國一樣流動、龐大或評級如此高。

“The US government issues something the rest of the world desperately wishes it had,” Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center and former adviser at the International Monetary Fund, wrote in May.
「美國政府發行了全球其他國家渴望擁有的東西。」大西洋理事會地緣經濟中心高級主任、前國際貨幣基金組織顧問喬希·利普斯基在五月份寫道。

The US government has roughly $31.9 trillion of total public debt outstanding, according to data as of June 8 from the Treasury Department.
根據美國財政部6月8日的數據，美國政府大約有31.9萬億美元的公共債務未償還。

While the US government has come close to defaulting on its debt before, it’s never actually happened. Moreover, the government is seen as a far more stable entity than a corporation, for instance, since it can impose taxes and take other measures to ensure it doesn’t run out of cash. That makes it an ideal issuer of debt.
雖然美國政府曾經接近債務違約，但實際上從未發生過。此外，政府被視為比公司等更穩定的實體，因為它可以徵稅和採取其他措施，以確保不會用盡現金。這使其成為債務的理想發行者。

Other safe assets exist but pale in comparison to Treasuries. Gold, for example, is a haven prized for its price stability even when the rest of the market experiences volatility.
還有其他安全資產，但與國債相比，它們都黯然失色。例如，黃金是一個避風港，因其價格穩定而受到青睞，即使市場其他部分出現波動。

But the precious metal’s prices are beholden to factors that government debt is not, including a supply that is controlled by miners. That makes the market too risky to underpin a financial system in the same way as the US Treasury market, said Olivier d’Assier, head of APAC applied research at Qontigo.
但是貴金屬價格受到政府債務等因素的影響不大，而受到礦工控制的供應等因素影響較大。Qontigo亞太應用研究負責人Olivier d'Assier表示，這使得貴金屬市場風險過高，無法像美國國債市場一樣支撐金融體系。

Moreover, Treasuries are denominated by the US dollar, the world’s leading reserve currency — a position unlikely to be supplanted by another form of exchange such as gold, despite the value that it holds.
此外，美國國債以美元計價，美元是世界領先的儲備貨幣，儘管黃金具有價值，但不太可能被其他形式的交換所取代。

“It’s not like we all carry around a bunch of gold bars in our pockets to use at the grocery store,” said George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank.
"我們不可能隨身攜帶一堆金條去超市購物，" Key Private Bank 的首席投資官 George Mateyo 說道。

Monday: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations.
星期一：紐約聯邦儲備銀行消費者預期調查。

Tuesday: Consumer Price Index report for May and NFIB small business optimism index. Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting.
星期二：公佈五月份消費者物價指數報告和NFIB小企業信心指數。聯邦儲備委員會開始為期兩天的會議。

Wednesday: Producer Price Index report for May. Federal Reserve interest rate decision and post-meeting press conference.
星期三：5月份生產者物價指數報告。聯邦儲備委員會利率決策和會後新聞發布會。

Thursday: Retail sales for May, mortgage rates and weekly jobless claims.
星期四：五月零售銷售、房貸利率和每週失業救濟申請。

Friday: University of Michigan preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in June.
星期五：密西根大學將公佈6月份消費者情緒的初步閱讀。

新聞來源: CNN (#國際新聞)

原文網址:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/11/business/fed-meeting-stocks-week-ahead/index.html