心智模型：理解世界的最佳途徑
本篇文章來自Farnam Street，是我讀了Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions 這篇文章後的翻譯節錄加上心得。
A mental model is a compression of how something works. Any idea, belief, or concept can be distilled down. Like a map, mental models reveal key information while ignoring irrelevant details. Models concentrate the world into understandable and useable chunks.
心智模型是世界如何運作的壓縮，任何想法、信念、或是概念都可以被精萃。就像一個地圖，一個心智模型揭露重要的訊息並忽略不相關的細節，模型將世界收斂成可被理解、被運用的小塊狀。
Mental models help us understand the world. For example, velocity is a mental model that helps you understand that both speed and direction matter. Reciprocity is a mental model that helps you understand how going positive and going first gets the world to do most of the work for you. Margin of Safety is a mental model that helps you understand that things don’t always go as planned. Relativity is a mental model that shows us we have blind spots and how a different perspective can reveal new information. The list goes on.
心智模型幫助我們認識這個世界，舉例來說，速率(Velocity)是幫助你了解速度與方向都需要納入考量的心智模型；互惠(Reciprocity)是幫助你知道秉持向善若水的原則，外界將自然為你服務的心智模型；安全邊際(Margin of Safety)是你知道預料之外的事情總會發生、未雨綢繆的心智模型；相對性(Relativity)是一個展示我們具有盲點且一個不同的觀點如何揭示新訊息，心智模型的例子還不僅如此。
You’ve got to have models in your head and you’ve got to array you experience – both vicarious and direct – onto this latticework of mental models. —Charlie munger
主要的心智模型 The Core Mental Models
1. The Map is Not the Territory
地圖不等於疆界
The map of reality is not reality. Even the best maps are imperfect. That’s because they are reductions of what they represent. If a map were to represent the territory with perfect fidelity, it would no longer be a reduction and thus would no longer be useful to us. A map can also be a snapshot of a point in time, representing something that no longer exists. This is important to keep in mind as we think through problems and make better decisions.
地圖上畫出的現實並不是真正的現實。即便是最棒的地圖都是不完美的，這是因為他們是他們所實際代表事物的縮減版。若一個地圖能完美忠誠的呈現他所表徵的疆界，他就再也不是一個縮減版、也就不在對我們有用處了。一個地圖也可以是一個時間點的擷取，代表著一個已不存在的事物。這很重要、需要被記在心裡，當我們在思考問題且做出更好的選擇時。
能力的圓圈
When ego and not competence drive what we undertake, we have massive blind spots. If you know what you understand, you know where you have an edge over others. When you are honest about where your knowledge is lacking, you know where you are vulnerable and where you can improve. Understanding your circle of competence improves decision-making and outcomes.
當自我而非能力驅動我們採取行動時，我們會有巨大的盲點。若你清楚知道你知道什麼，你有壓制於他人的相對優勢；當你對自己的弱點有誠實的認知，你知道你在哪邊脆弱以及可以進步的地方。知道你的能力圓圈有助於增強做出抉擇並有好的結果。
第一原則思考
First-principles thinking is one of the best ways to reverse-engineer complicated situations and unleash creative possibility. Sometimes called reasoning from first principles, it’s a tool to help clarify complicated problems by separating the underlying ideas or facts from any assumptions based on them. What remains are the essentials. If you know the first principles of something, you can build the rest of your knowledge around them to produce something new.
第一原則思考是反向操作複雜情況的最好方法，並能夠釋放創意的可能。有時被稱作“從第一原則做推演”，這是一個工具，透過分割建立於假設之上的想法或事實來加以釐清複雜問題，剩下的就是必不可少的。若你知曉任一事物的第一原則，你可以將你在此事物上的其他知識建構在其上並產出新的認知。
思想實驗
Thought experiments can be defined as “devices of the imagination used to investigate the nature of things.” Many disciplines, such as philosophy and physics, make use of thought experiments to examine what can be known. In doing so, they can open up new avenues for inquiry and exploration. Thought experiments are powerful because they help us learn from our mistakes and avoid future ones. They let us take on the impossible, evaluate the potential consequences of our actions, and re-examine history to make better decisions. They can help us both figure out what we really want and the best way to get there.
思想實驗可以被定義為“想像的儀器用來探查自然事物”。許多規準，像是哲學或物理，都應用思想實驗來衡量什麼是能被知道的。如此一來，可以打開新的求知與探索的場域。思想實驗很有力量，他能幫助我們從錯誤中學習並避免未來的錯誤，它讓我們承接不可能的任務、評估行為的潛在後果，並重新衡量歷史以做出更好的決策。它可以幫助我們同時搞清楚我們真正想要的、以及要到達目標的最佳途徑。
翻譯完的心得：對於心智模型的掌握，好像是到最近（快要30了）才比較有真實的體感—像是不懂得「速率」，拚命往前衝也可能是奔向決絕斷涯；不懂得「互惠」，對經營事業的效率與互信會有很大影響；不懂「安全邊際」，很容易錯估風險而遍體鱗傷倒地不起。讀完是已經不能再胡亂瞎忙的一種臨視感。
該是突破認知邊界的時候了。
