半導體霸權：台灣應啟動出口禁制令，首發對象南非
在21世紀的全球政治舞台上，半導體已然超越石油，成為最具戰略價值的關鍵資源。根據最新數據顯示，半導體在2020年已成為全球貿易中最重要的商品，佔總貿易額的15%。值得注意的是，中國的半導體進口額自2015年起就已超過石油進口，這個事實充分說明了半導體在現代經濟中的核心地位。
台灣在這場全球半導體競賽中佔據著無可撼動的優勢。台積電的市場佔有率預計將從2024年的64%上升到2025年的66%，展現出其在全球半導體產業的絕對主導地位。這種領先優勢不僅體現在市場份額上，更反映在技術實力方面。台積電已成功掌握全球最先進的晶片製造技術，其客戶群包括科技巨頭如蘋果、輝達（Nvidia）和博通（Broadcom）等。根據最新財報，台積電預計2025年營收將增長約25%，這種強勁增長主要來自人工智能和高效能運算領域的蓬勃發展。
在這種背景下，台灣有必要效仿美國的做法，建立更嚴格的半導體出口管制機制。美國商務部已於2025年1月發布最新的出口管制規定，針對先進積體電路製造商實施更嚴格的管控。台灣應該建立類似的長臂管轄機制，對半導體產品的最終使用者和用途進行全面管控。這種管制不應僅限於直接出口，還應涵蓋經第三方轉售的情況。另外在Nividia建立其在台針對美國以外的營運中心建立後，該公司非銷售到美國市場的產品，就會因為避稅的目的得到某種遠離美國的效果，也因此台灣發起的管制會更加有效率。
特別值得注意的是，南非作為首個實施出口管制的目標國家具有其特殊意義。南非正積極擴大其半導體市場，預計2025年至2030年間將以7.3%的年複合增長率發展，同時該國也正在與中國加強科技合作關係。作為金磚國家（BRICS）的重要成員，南非在2025年將主辦金磚國家青年創新峰會，這表明其在全球科技發展中扮演著越來越重要的角色。
對南非實施半導體出口管制具有多重戰略意義：首先，這將展示台灣在全球半導體供應鏈中的主導地位；其次，這能夠有效防止先進半導體技術通過南非轉移至其他國家；第三，這將為未來對其他國家實施類似管制建立先例。南非半導體材料市場預計到2024-29年將突破1億美元，這個規模雖然不大，但具有重要的示範效應。
台灣的出口管制機制應要求主要客戶如輝達、蘋果和博通等承諾遵守相關規定，確保其產品不會通過直接或間接方式流入南非市場。台積電目前已採取「極其謹慎的方式」來確保符合出口管制要求，這種做法應進一步擴大到對南非的管制範疇。
這種管制機制的建立不僅是為了保護台灣的經濟利益，更是為了維護國家安全和全球科技秩序。半導體產業的地緣政治影響力已可與20世紀的石油相提並論，誰掌握了半導體技術，誰就掌握了未來世界的發展主導權。台灣作為全球半導體產業的核心，有責任也有能力在這個新時代扮演更積極的角色。
透過建立完善的出口管制體系，並以南非為首個示範案例，台灣不僅可以確保自身的戰略優勢，還能為全球科技產業的健康發展做出貢獻。這需要政府、產業界和國際夥伴的共同努力，但這項投資必將為台灣帶來長遠的戰略收益。
English Version
Semiconductor Hegemony: Taiwan Should Initiate Export Ban Orders, first target South Africa
On the global political stage of the 21st century, semiconductors have surpassed oil to become the most strategically valuable resource. According to recent data, semiconductors became the most important commodity in global trade in 2020, accounting for 15% of total trade value. Notably, China's semiconductor imports have exceeded oil imports since 2015, a fact that clearly demonstrates the central role of semiconductors in the modern economy.
Taiwan holds an unshakeable advantage in this global semiconductor race. TSMC's market share is expected to rise from 64% in 2024 to 66% in 2025, demonstrating its absolute dominance in the global semiconductor industry. This leading advantage is reflected not only in market share but also in technological capability. TSMC has successfully mastered the world's most advanced chip manufacturing technology, with a customer base including tech giants such as Apple, Nvidia, and Broadcom. According to the latest financial reports, TSMC expects revenue growth of approximately 25% in 2025, driven primarily by the robust growth in AI and high-performance computing sectors.
Against this backdrop, Taiwan needs to follow the U.S. approach and establish stricter semiconductor export control mechanisms. The U.S. Department of Commerce issued new export control regulations in January 2025, implementing tighter controls on advanced integrated circuit manufacturers. Taiwan should establish similar long-arm jurisdiction mechanisms to comprehensively control semiconductor products' end-users and applications. These controls should not be limited to direct exports but should also cover third-party resale scenarios. In addition, after Nvidia establishes its operations center in Taiwan for regions outside the United States, the company's products that are not sold to the U.S. market will have a certain distancing effect from the U.S. for tax avoidance purposes. As a result, the regulations initiated by Taiwan will be more effective.
Of particular note is South Africa's significance as the first target country for export controls. South Africa is actively expanding its semiconductor market, expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.3% between 2025 and 2030, while also strengthening its technological cooperation with China. As a key member of BRICS, South Africa will host the BRICS Youth Innovation Summit in 2025, indicating its increasingly important role in global technological development.
Implementing semiconductor export controls on South Africa carries multiple strategic implications: first, it will demonstrate Taiwan's dominant position in the global semiconductor supply chain; second, it can effectively prevent advanced semiconductor technology from being transferred to other countries through South Africa; and third, it will establish a precedent for implementing similar controls on other countries in the future. South Africa's semiconductor materials market is expected to exceed $100 million by 2024-29, and while this scale is relatively small, it carries significant demonstrative effect.
Taiwan's export control mechanism should require major customers such as Nvidia, Apple, and Broadcom to commit to compliance with relevant regulations, ensuring their products do not flow into the South African market through direct or indirect channels. TSMC has already taken an "extremely cautious approach" to ensure compliance with export control requirements, and this approach should be further expanded to include controls on South Africa.
The establishment of this control mechanism is not only about protecting Taiwan's economic interests but also about maintaining national security and global technological order. The geopolitical influence of the semiconductor industry now rivals that of oil in the 20th century, and whoever controls semiconductor technology controls the future direction of world development. As the core of the global semiconductor industry, Taiwan has both the responsibility and capability to play a more active role in this new era.
By establishing a comprehensive export control system and using South Africa as the first demonstration case, Taiwan can not only ensure its own strategic advantages but also contribute to the healthy development of the global technology industry. This requires joint efforts from the government, industry, and international partners, but this investment will bring long-term strategic benefits to Taiwan.
