在 1.5 °C 之後，誠實面對制度設計的基本功
2025 年的 COP30 將在巴西貝倫（Belém）舉行。這不只是距離上的遙遠，更象徵氣候治理的焦點，從「設定目標」轉向「落實行動」。今年被稱為「Nature COP」，因為自然、生態與生物多樣性，正式成為氣候治理的核心議題。
對我而言，這也是一次回到根本的檢視──在 1.5 °C 幾乎確定越線的當下，我們該誠實面對：制度設計是否真的足以支撐行動？
一、1.5 °C 確定守不住了──但還能誠實地「對帳」
根據聯合國環境規劃署（UNEP）最新《排放差距報告 2025》 [1]，即使各國把 NDC 完全兌現，本世紀升溫仍將落在 2.3 至 2.5 °C 之間；若僅依現行政策，甚至可能超過 2.8 °C。要將每超出 0.1 °C 的升溫拉回，必須永久移除約 220 億噸 CO₂ ——相當於全球五年的排放量 [2]。這不僅是技術挑戰，更是一場「制度信任」的壓力測試。
而美國預計 2026 年正式退出《巴黎協定》 [3]，讓國際合作的不確定性再次升高。這一切，都使 COP30 成為關鍵節點：我們是否仍有機會在制度上重建信任？
二、從「喊目標」走向「做制度」──巴西的「Nature COP」新布局
巴西身為主辦國，推出多項關鍵倡議：
「貝倫 4× 承諾」：由巴西、義大利、日本共同發起，2035 年前讓全球永續燃料產量與使用量翻四倍 [4]。
「巴庫—貝倫氣候融資路線圖」：預計到 2035 年，每年動員 1.3 兆美元協助開發中國家氣候調適 [5]。
「熱帶雨林保護基金」：建立長期金融機制，將收益回饋給原住民與雨林守護者。
同時，六大「行動議程」也將登場──從能源轉型、森林與海洋管理、農糧系統、城市韌性、社會發展，到融資與技術建構。這些行動，將與正式談判互補，讓氣候倡議更接近落地。
這正是我此行最關注的：當自然成為氣候治理的基礎設施，Article 6 能否提供一套可驗證的合作機制？
三、我此行關注的核心：巴黎協定第六條 （Article 6）
① 6.2 ──雙邊合作與國際登錄（ITMOs）
關鍵在「授權」、「首次轉移」與「對應調整」的定義與程序。
誰能核可？可否撤回？怎麼確保不重複計算？
我會特別觀察 International Registry 是否正式上線，以及 SoP 與 OMGE 是否能從「鼓勵性規範」提升為「強制性門檻」 [6]。
值得注意的是，新加坡 已在碳稅機制中允許 5% 以 Article 6 國際碳權抵繳，並與祕魯簽署專案合作 [8][9]，是亞太最具實踐進度的國家。
② 6.4 ──聯合國集中機制（PACM）
登錄庫程序 v02.1 已發布，今年底能否完成首批方法學審核與簽發是關鍵 [7]。
同時，「移除類」專案的永久性與逆轉風險管理（包含緩衝帳）將決定市場信任度。
6.4 不只是技術議題，而是國際碳市場能否重建「可信任的量化基礎」的核心。
③ 6.8 ──非市場途徑 （Non-Market Approaches, NMA）
6.8 是我認為最具潛力的架構──
它不以交易為目的，而以系統性合作推動轉型，例如農業、原鄉治理、公正轉型（Just Transition）與技術共創。
若能把這套思維內化為公私協力制度，就能讓永續行動更貼近社會真實需求 [10]。
四、給企業與專業者的三個提醒
① 品質優先於價格。
選擇有授權、有對應調整、方法學透明、具人權與環境保障的碳權，才能避免風險。
② 關注制度型需求池。
新加坡、日本的 6.2 專案與碳稅抵繳制度，是最穩定的起點。
③ 把 Article 6 視為「制度工具箱」，不是市場口號。
它代表的是治理基礎：信任、透明、與責任。
五、結語：制度的誠實，是最長遠的投資回報
當 1.5 °C 成為過去式，氣候行動的關鍵不再是喊口號，而是如何設計可信任的制度。
Article 6 不是完美的答案，但它提供了最接近現實的起點。
我會在 COP30 現場繼續觀察：
- 6.2 的國際登錄是否上線？
- 6.4 的首批簽發是否能展現信任？
- 6.8 能否真的讓非市場合作落地？
唯有把制度做實，市場信任才會回來，氣候行動才有未來。
參考資料
[1] UNEP — Emissions Gap Report 2025
[2] UNEP Press Release (2025/11/4)
[3] Reuters — US to withdraw from Paris Agreement on Jan 27 2026
[4] Bloomberg — Brazil Lines Up Pledge on Quadrupling Clean Fuel at COP30
[5] World Economic Forum — What is COP30 and what is at stake?
[6] UNFCCC — A6.2 International Registry Info Session
[7] UNFCCC — A6.4 Mechanism Registry Procedure v02.1
[8] Singapore NCCS — Carbon Tax (ICC 5%) Guidelines
[9] NEA Singapore — Singapore-Peru Article 6 Project Call
[10] UNFCCC — Article 6.8 (NMA) Implementation Note
#COP30 #巴黎協定 #第六條 #Article6 #碳市場 #碳權 #NatureCOP #氣候治理 #UNFCCC #碳融資 #公私協力 #SustainabilityInAction #SeeTheCoreSparkTheValue #ValueDriveCycle
🔍 Beyond 1.5 °C: Why I’m Heading to COP30 with Article 6 at the Center of My Agenda
The world is no longer debating if we’ll exceed 1.5 °C — it’s now about how far, and how we come back. According to the latest United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2025, even with full implementation of current NDCs, global warming is likely to reach 2.3–2.5 °C by the end of the century. [1] That reality demands hard accounting, scalable tools, and credible cooperation — not just lofty promises.
This year at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the summit is explicitly billed as the “COP of Implementation” with a strong nature-and-biodiversity focus. [2] Key pre-summit announcements underscore this shift:
- The “Belém 4x” initiative aims to quadruple sustainable fuel production and use by 2035, led by Brazil, Italy and Japan. [3]
- Negotiators are mapping a “Baku-to-Belém Roadmap” to mobilize up to US $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for climate finance to developing countries. [2]
- A major push is under way to integrate nature, ecology and biodiversity into the heart of climate policy — anchoring forests, oceans and soil as core climate infrastructure, not afterthought. [4]
That’s why, this COP, my focus will be on Paris Agreement Article 6 — not simply as a carbon-market framework, but as a test of climate-governance integrity, and of whether we can translate frameworks into trustable action.
🧩 Three Key Article 6 Questions I’ll Be Tracking
- Article 6.2 – Bilateral Cooperation (ITMOs)
- Can states define and implement authorisation, first transfer, and corresponding adjustments (CA) in a way that avoids double-counting and builds trust?
- Will the International Registry finally be operational and interconnected across jurisdictions? [5]
- Will 6.2 shift closer to the stronger standards of 6.4 (SoP & OMGE) or remain the weaker “encouraged” pathway?
- Article 6.4 – The UN-supervised Mechanism (PACM)
- With procedure v02.1 of the Mechanism Registry published, will the first batch of credits be issued by end-2025? [6]
- Can the mechanism enforce high-integrity safeguards on permanence, human-rights/social safeguards, and grievance mechanisms at scale?
- How will removal-type projects handle the durability and reversal-risk dilemmas?
- Article 6.8 – Non-Market Approaches (NMAs)
- Can non-market cooperation move beyond rhetoric into replicable, system-level collaboration — especially in adaptation, just transition, and nature-positive development?
- Will the Theme-axis agenda of COP30 (energy, forests/oceans/biodiversity, food systems, cities/infrastructure, social & development, and finance/tech/capacity) become aligned with NMA delivery? [2]
🌱 Why It Matters for Asia-Pacific Stakeholders
For region-based actors, the structural details matter more than ever:
- Singapore and Japan are already implementing 6.2-type frameworks. Singapore allows up to 5% of carbon-tax liabilities to be met via authorised international credits, a sign of operational readiness.
- For Taiwanese and regional enterprises, the opportunity lies in engaging early, aligning with high-integrity frameworks and building capacity — before standards harden and costs rise.
- For institutions, Article 6 must be treated not as a carbon-offset marketing tool, but as a governance tool: the infrastructure that enables credible, scalable cooperation across borders and sectors.
🎯 Key Message
We’ve had enough pledges. Now is the time to test the plumbing.
Article 6 is where the real trust-accounting happens — across borders, systems and sectors.
That’s why I’ll be asking the tough questions at COP30: How real are the authorisations? How live is the registry? How strong are the safeguards? How usable is the mechanism for private-sector partners?
📍 Find me at the STUF Pavilion – “Sustainability in Action” at COP30 in Belém.
