精明管家-木頭姊是馬斯克粉

特斯拉股價低迷中，木頭姊來送暖。有人整理出重點分享出來，還真不錯。本文無原創，只是看視頻寫筆記。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsF26iOT3Xo

漲七到十倍的原因，主要是看到無人駕駛技術 V 12.3 的驚人進步，可能催生無人計程車的快速發展。而目前華爾街分析師們，都尚未將無人計程車的商機加入估值模型呢！這是木頭姊看到的巨大機會。這是整段視頻的重點，以下是詳細過程。

Question: You've been a long time bull on Tesla, you have been buying shares recently after selling them for most of 2023, the stock down about 30 percent so far this year. We covered the news this week that the shipments from Shanghai factory sanked the lowest in over a year in February. The chanllenges facing in EV industry have been well documented we talked about those a lot. Why do you still like Tesla, considering all of the challenges in the EV space and also what many critics would say are disappointing fundamentals?

Answer: Yes, you are right we were selling last year as it was in the 300 to 400 dollar range, it'a back to 175, this what portfolio managers do. We have a five year investment horizon, for Tesla and our price expectation from here we see roughly a 7 to 10 fold increase. I know we're in the process of revising our model so I'm not at liberty to give you the new number, but it will be higher than 2000 because the autonomous taxi platform opportunity will be in full force and we believe that Tesla will get the lion's share of the market here in the US, if not elsewhere. Autonomous taxi platform are SaaS model, Tesla's current gross margin is in the teens right now, because it's been cutting prices but we think normalized the EV margin is in 30% range, SaaS margins are in 80% range. Most analyst focusing on stock have nothing in autonomous taxi platform.

Question: Is there anything in the Nvidia story that will make you rethink the name and want to become more aggresive on it?

Answer: Yes, if the price came down a lot, but we think there is been a little bit too much too soon. This AI revolution is going to be broad based and is going to bebefit a lot pf companies, on the GPU side of course we have AMD as competition but many people do not understand that there is a lot of other surreptitious competition evolving out there. Each of the hyperscalers is evolving its own chip strategy, you have a Tesla that has designed its own AI chip for the specialized, more specialized autonomous driving opportunity and I think you are going to see a lot of companies developing more specialized chips, we know that Nvidia of course will segment the market as well, so we just think that a lot of the assumptions for Nvidia's alone in the market, those are changing.

AI 將廣泛的使眾多公司受惠，而不只是 Nvidia。如 Tesla 為自動駕駛客製了專用晶片，同時也在研發執行在雲端的 dojo 超級晶片，摩根史坦利認為 dojo 甚至可以發展成類似 aws 的雲端服務，馬斯克也對 dojo 寄與厚望，認為其收益將無比巨大。

Our confidence that autonomous is going to happen has increased because it has happened. We see waymo's success, and commercial success that is in China, it can be done. We think Tesla will launch a national service and this is where AI comes in. Tesla has orders of magnitude more data than all of the other auto and tech companies going after this market combined, and what is important about that is that it has corner cases that nobody else has, rare rare occurrences on the road that its has recorded and it is prepared for it but others aren't.

特斯拉已經有 500 萬輛汽車在外面跑，擁有絕對多的路況資料，和最極端的案例，所以它的自動駕駛可以實現輾壓性的優勢。一輛 waymo 的成本在 30 萬美元以上，但 Tesla 的每一輛車都可以勝任無人出租車，邊際成本極低，且 Tesla 不需要為不同地方承擔鉅額的培訓成本，所以它幾乎是市場上唯一一家能真正擴展的公司。重點是，華爾街目前尚未對此機會有任何估值，真令人吃驚。

Five major innovations platforms around which we have centered our research are converging. Three of them he is helping to converge is autonomous taxi platform. Autonomous vehicles are robots at energy storage they will be electric and artificial intellegence where those are three separate s curves feeding each other and should lead to a superexponential growth. He has understood this idea that technologies are going to converge with one another and that is the way he's been thinking, that's why he is going to win.

5 innovation platforms, look at the 3 are converging in autonomous taxi platform:

• Artificial Intellegence
• Energy Storage
• Robotics
• Multiomic Sequencing (基因工程)
• Public Blockchains

Newman 2024/3/15

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