為什麼華爾街預計在六月加息？| CNN商業

從周五公布的PCE高於預期，核心PCE年增率為4.7%，同樣高於市場預期與三月前值的4.6%，都顯示經濟很強勁，但這也意味著美國在央行積極遏制通脹的行動面前仍然保持著強韌的姿態。所以禮拜五的就業市場數據的公布可能會影響聯準會的態度。

Why does Wall Street expect a rate hike in June? | CNN Business

為什麼華爾街預計在六月加息？| CNN商業

Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June. Not only that, it finally believes the central bank when it says it likely won’t cut rates this year. 華爾街預計聯邦儲備委員會將在六月份加息。不僅如此，當中央銀行表示今年可能不會降息時，華爾街終於相信了這一點。

What happened? Two key pieces of economic data came in hotter than expected last week, raising investors’ hackles about what the Fed’s interest rate trajectory could look like: 發生了什麼事？上週公佈的兩項關鍵經濟數據比預期更為強勁，引起投資者對聯邦儲備委員會利率軌跡可能會是什麼樣子的擔憂。

The economic data — along with recent calm in the regional banking sector after First Republic’s collapse earlier this month — has investors betting that the Fed could hike rates next month, says Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management. 賓州互助資產管理公司的首席投資官Mark Heppenstall表示，經濟數據以及本月初第一共和國崩潰後區域銀行業的最近平靜，讓投資者打賭聯邦儲備委員會可能在下個月加息。

Futures traders expected a roughly 66% chance of a quarter point rate hike in June as of Friday afternoon, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That would mark the central bank’s 11th consecutive rate increase. 根據CME FedWatch工具，截至周五下午，期貨交易員預計6月份加息幅度為0.25個百分點的機率大約為66%。這將標誌著中央銀行連續第11次加息。

Perhaps even more surprising, markets no longer believe the Fed will cut rates in 2023. That’s a drastic about-face from even earlier this month, when Wall Street expected the central bank to slash rates multiple times this year starting as early as this summer. 或許更令人驚訝的是，市場不再相信聯邦儲備委員會(Fed)將在2023年降息。這是從本月初開始的一個劇烈的轉變，當時華爾街預計中央銀行將從今年夏天開始多次削減利率。

The good news: While a strong economy does give the Fed more leeway to raise rates, it also means the US is remaining resilient in the face of the central bank’s aggressive campaign to tame inflation. 好消息是：雖然強勁的經濟環境確實讓聯邦儲備委員會有更多提高利率的空間，但這也意味著美國在央行積極遏制通脹的行動面前仍然保持著強韌的姿態。

Of course, the economy’s strength is nothing new. Some investors who previously expected a recession have in recent months seen more indications that the economy could enter a Goldilocks scenario, where both inflation and economic growth are modest, says Peter Essele, senior vice president of investment management and research for Commonwealth Financial Network. 當然，經濟實力並不是什麼新鮮事。Commonwealth Financial Network的投資管理和研究高級副總裁Peter Essele表示，一些之前預期經濟衰退的投資者在最近幾個月看到更多跡象表明經濟可能進入一個「金發女孩」情境，即通脹和經濟增長都很適中。

Moreover, the bond market is showing some signals that traders are easing their bets on a possible recession later this year. The 2-year Treasury yield is at its highest level since early March, before the failures of regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank sparked fears of a recession and sent the yield sharply downward. 此外，債券市場顯示出一些信號，表明交易員正在減少對今年晚些時候可能發生的經濟衰退的押注。 2年期國庫券收益率自三月初以來處於最高水平，當時區域銀行矽谷銀行和簽名銀行的失敗引發了對經濟衰退的擔憂，並導致收益率急劇下降。

What’s next? There are still several important economic readings that the Fed will parse before its next interest rate decision on June 14. The May jobs report is due next Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and early estimates from economists show job gains of 180,000 and a tick up in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. 接下來呢？在6月14日美聯儲做出下一次利率決策之前，仍有幾個重要的經濟數據需要美聯儲解讀。5月份的就業報告將於下週五上午8:30公佈，經濟學家的初步估計顯示就業增長18萬，失業率上升至3.5%。

“If it comes in hotter than expected, it almost locks a rate hike in” for June, said Heppenstall. "Heppenstall表示：「如果通脹高於預期，幾乎可以確定6月會加息。」"

American traveling this Memorial Day weekend will spend $1.6 billion less on gas compared to a year ago, reports my colleague Matt Egan. 根據我的同事Matt Egan的報導，與一年前相比，美國人在這個紀念日週末將少花費16億美元的汽油費。

The national average for regular gasoline was at $3.57 a gallon as of Friday, AAA data shows. That’s down by more than $1 from the same Friday one year ago prior to the holiday weekend, when sky-high oil prices due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent prices at the pump surging. 根據AAA的數據，截至上週五，常規汽油的全國平均價格為每加侖3.57美元。這比去年同一個假日週末前的星期五下降了1美元以上，當時由於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭導致油價飆升，加油站的價格也隨之上漲。

Drivers in all 50 states can expect cheaper gas prices this holiday weekend. 全美50個州的駕駛員可以期待在這個假日週末享受到更便宜的汽油價格。

“Those who waited to take a road trip this summer are being rewarded with big savings on gasoline,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. GasBuddy 的石油分析主管 Patrick De Haan 表示：“那些等待今年夏天進行公路旅行的人正在因汽油大幅節省而受到獎勵。”

He sees about a one in three chance that the national average for regular gas will hit $4 a gallon this summer, down from a 2 in 3 chance in January. 他認為全國普通汽油平均價格在今年夏天達到每加侖4美元的機率約為三分之一，比一月份的機率降低了三分之二。

But there are some risks that threaten De Haan’s outlook. 但是有一些風險威脅著德漢的前景。

Read more here. 在這裡閱讀更多。

Monday: US stock market closed for Memorial Day. 星期一：美國股市因懷念日休市。

Tuesday: Case Shiller home prices for March and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for May. 星期二：3月份的Case Shiller房價指數和5月份的Conference Board消費者信心指數。

Wednesday: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April and Federal Reserve Beige Book. 週三：4月份的職位空缺和勞動力流動調查以及聯邦儲備委員會米色書。

Thursday: Mortgage rates. Earnings reports from Macy’s (M), Dollar General (DG) and Lululemon (LULU). 星期四：抵押貸款利率。梅西百貨（M）、Dollar General（DG）和Lululemon（LULU）的盈利報告。

Friday: Jobs report for May. 星期五：五月份的就業報告。.

新聞來源: CNN (#國際新聞)

原文網址:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/26/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html