DeepSeek新聞發表後, 分析師對NVIDIA(NVDA)的看法.

註: 中文是用Google Translator直接翻譯. 若有疑問, 可跟我聯繫.

• 半導體行業技術性很強，鑑於非科技/宏觀投資者近期的悲觀情緒日益高漲，我們不排除由於缺乏該領域的專業知識以及考慮到年初至今的漲幅，而拋售/輪換人工智能半導體的可能性。如果發生這種疲軟情況，我們將採取反向投資方式，耐心地增加我們的部位。對於 NVDA，我們認為 100 美元（20x 美元 5 EPS）和 80 美元（20x 美元 4 EPS）似乎是主要切入點。

The analyst comments "What Happened? On Friday, NYT, Ben Thompson, and Vital Knowledge all wrote about DeepSeek (a Chinese AI startup) posing a threat to OpenAI. Earlier last week, the Chinese company published the full version of a model that allegedly surpasses GPT-o1 costing only 3- 5% of the latter, triggering the above mentioned articles/opinions. As a result, we received a wave of questions on Friday afternoon and during the weekend, leading us to write this note. Our View. The semiconductor industry is highly technical and given the mounting recent bearishness from non-tech/macro investors, we wouldn't rule out a sell-off/rotation out of AI semis due to a lack of expertise in this area and considering the YTD gains. Taking a contrarian approach, we would patiently add to our positions if such weakness occurs. Regarding NVDA, we believe that USD 100 (20x USD 5 EPS) and USD 80 (20x USD 4 EPS) appear to be the main entry points."

• 該分析師評論稱，「自上次盈利以來，NVDA 基本上停滯不前，部分原因是供應鏈噪音和對Blackwell 伺服器機架產能提升的擔憂。我們仍然相信NVDA 將實現強勁的FQ4（1 月）業績和FQ1（4 月）指引投資者對近期「泡沫」的擔憂被誇大了。產品正在迅速轉向Blackwell 而遠離Hopper 的報導。規模企業這樣的終端客戶正在使用買賣模式來利用ODM 或其供應商營運資金，在某些情況下可能為這些庫存提供過橋融資。主要供應商））最近已取得顯著改善，儘管瑞銀亞洲團隊仍然認為其他問題還有更多改善硬體組件仍然是必要的。我們認為，這種情況將會發生，NVDA 將繼續按計劃向 OEM/ODM 出貨 B200/GB200，未來幾個月這些合作夥伴可能會增加庫存，而零件供應商將繼續提高良率，OEM一旦機架部署難題得到解決，ODM 便會快速生產機架組件並運送給最終客戶。我們相信機架出貨已經開始，鴻海（根據UBSe 的數據，佔GB200 機架規模系統的40% 份額）確認GB200 機架系統將於1 月下旬開始批量出貨- 早於最初的預期（鏈接），儘管大多數出貨量我們認為它將於三月真正到來。另一家伺服器機架供應商廣達（佔 GB200 機架出貨量的 40%）重申將於 2 月底/3 月開始 GB200 機架的大量生產。因此，我們現在預計 Blackwell 1 月份的收入約為 90 億美元（之前約為 50 億美元，供應鏈能力能夠支持高達 140 億美元），但我們認為 Hopper 1 月份的收入有所下降。 FQ4（1 月）約420 億美元（資料中心約380 億美元），FQ1（4 月）仍約470 億美元。淨值方面，我們的預估基本上保持不變，目標價仍為 185 美元。

The analyst commented, "NVDA has essentially tread water since last earnings, in part due to supply chain noise and concerns around the ramp of Blackwell server racks. We remain confident that NVDA will deliver strong FQ4 (Jan) results and FQ1 (Apr) guidance and investor concerns around a near term "air-pocket" are overblown. First, we believe Blackwell chipset/ compute board yields have inflected higher, and mix in both FQ4 (Jan) and FQ1 (Apr) is shifting very rapidly to Blackwell and away from Hopper. Second, as indicated in our CES note, NVDA recognizes revenue when ODMs/OEMs take title of compute boards and we believe that in many cases end customers like the big hyperscalers are using a buy and sell model to leverage ODMs or their suppliers’ working capital, and in some instances may be providing bridge financing for this inventory. Third, we believe the primary hardware issue (connector cartridges (Amphenol primary supplier)) has seen significant recent improvement, though UBS Asia team still believes more improvement on other hardware components is still necessary. We believe the way this plays out is that NVDA continues to ship B200/GB200 on-plan to OEMs/ODMs, there could be some inventory build at these partners over the next couple of months while component suppliers continue to improve yield rates, and OEM/ODMs quickly ramp rack assemblies and ship to end customers once rack deployment challenges are remedied. We believe rack shipments are already underway with Hon Hai (~40% share of GB200 rack-scale systems, per UBSe) confirming volume shipments of GB200 rack systems commencing in 2H of January - earlier than originally expected (link) though the majority of shipments really look to be coming in March in our view. The other server rack supplier – Quanta (40% of share of GB200 rack shipments) – reiterated volume production of GB200 racks would start in late Feb/March. As a result, we now see Blackwell revenue at ~$9B in Jan Q (vs. ~$5B previously and supply chain capacity able to support as much as $14B) but we believe Hopper is down in Jan. Net, we remain at ~$42B for FQ4 (Jan) (Data Center ~$38B) with FQ1 (April) still ~$47B. Net, our estimates are largely unchanged and our PT remains $185."

文字資訊來源: TheFly.com. 圖片來源: TipRanks.

所有資訊內容僅供使用者作為參考之用途，不構成任何個人或機構之意見或判斷，亦不構成任何投資建議，作者亦不保證其各項資訊內容之完整性、即時性及精確性。使用者若欲參考各資訊而進行任何投資或其他特定目的行為，仍應審慎評估後為獨立判斷，若因而導致任何直接、間接、附帶損失，皆應由使用者自行承擔，作者概不負責。