長遠的遊戲：為何在投資中耐心和觀點至關重要

The Long Game: Why Patience and Perspective Matter in Investing
長遠的遊戲：為何在投資中耐心和觀點至關重要

Patience can be defined as the capacity to accept or tolerate delay, trouble, or suffering without getting angry or upset. It’s the ability to endure difficult circumstances, persevere in the face of adversity, or wait calmly for the achievement of a goal.
耐心可以被定義為在面對延遲、困難或痛苦時能夠接受或容忍而不生氣或心煩。它是在困境中忍耐、在逆境中堅持或平靜地等待目標實現的能力。

Variability of Returns 回報的變動性

Let’s use the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices as examples. It’s been two years since investors in the S&P 500 have seen positive gains. It’s been even more frustrating with small caps, with the Russell being at or close to the same level it was trading at back in November 2020. So, depending on what you’re invested in, you may be looking at 2 to 3 years of dead money.
讓我們以標普500指數和羅素2000指數作為例子。自從投資者在標普500指數上看到正面收益已經過去了兩年。而對於小型股票來說更加令人沮喪，羅素指數的水平與2020年11月的交易水平相當或接近。所以，根據你的投資組合，你可能需要面對2到3年的停滯不前。

It’s tempting to toss in the towel and lock in the 5% that short-term treasuries are paying, and that could be a good or bad decision, but for long-term money earmarked toward growth I’d argue that type of decision has the ability to detract from returns more than enhance them.
很容易就放棄並鎖定短期國庫券所支付的5%，這可能是個好或壞的決定，但對於長期用於增長的資金，我認為這種決定可能會削弱回報，而不是增強回報。

When we are in periods like this, it’s important for investors to take a longer-term view and not let recency bias and short-termism impact their decisions.
在像這樣的時期，投資者重要的是要有長期的觀點，不要讓最近的偏見和短期主義影響他們的決策。

The table below shows the rolling returns for the S&P 500 going back to 1994. On average, the S&P has produced a 10.3% annual return over rolling three-year periods, a 9.2% return over rolling five-year periods, and an 8.2% return over rolling seven-year periods. But these are averages, and investors can sometimes get lucky and invest when the returns are much higher (i.e., the High column) or much lower (i.e., the Low column). Take the worst-case ten-year period in which an investor who bought the S&P 500 may have had to endure a decade of losing money.
下表顯示了自1994年以來標普500指數的滾動回報率。平均而言，標普500指數在滾動三年期間產生了10.3%的年回報率，在滾動五年期間產生了9.2%的回報率，在滾動七年期間產生了8.2%的回報率。但這些只是平均值，投資者有時候可能會走運，投資時回報率可能會更高（即高列）或更低（即低列）。讓我們來看看最糟糕的十年期間，投資者在這段時間內可能會遭受連續十年的虧損。

Roll Period 滾動週期Average (Median) 平均（中位數）Best 最好的Worst 最糟糕的1 year 1年10.62%160.57%-467.84%3 years 3年9.89%42.43%-42.65%5 years 5年9.72%35.15%-17.97%7 years 七年9.02%25.75%-7.76%10 years 十年8.57%21.28%-5.38%15 years 15年8.32%19.24%-0.72%20 years 20年7.95%17.90%1.60%

This chart below presents this concept visually as well. This shows the five-year rolling returns of the S&P. As you may suspect, in the 1930s, early 1980s and during the 2000s, the rolling returns were below average and even negative, but after the market bottomed in these periods the rolling returns improved significantly.
下麵的圖表也以視覺方式呈現了這個概念。它展示了標準普爾500指數的五年滾動回報率。正如你可能猜測的那樣，在上世紀30年代、上世紀80年代初和2000年代期間，滾動回報率低於平均水平，甚至是負數，但在這些時期市場觸底後，滾動回報率顯著改善了。

5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
隨著時間推移的5年年化滾動回報率

“Forget About It” 忘了吧

Based on my experience in working with many different types of investors at different life stages, I can tell you a few things.
根據我在與不同生活階段的各種投資者合作的經驗，我可以告訴你一些事情。

Most can’t (or won’t) be able to handle three years of poor returns and if you expand it to five years, forget about it! But there are some ways to better try and position a portfolio and investments for these poor performing periods: some of it is tactical, some of it is mental and some of it is historical.
大多數人無法（或不願）忍受三年的低回報，如果擴展到五年，就更別提了！但有一些方法可以更好地調整投資組合，應對這些表現不佳的時期：其中一部分是策略性的，一部分是心態上的，還有一部分是歷史性的。

Diversify Smartly:  Shield your investments by spreading them across multiple assets and markets. Think beyond just stocks (or U.S. stocks) – incorporate bonds, international equities, alternatives and more to safeguard your portfolio against market volatility and long periods of lackluster returns that may shake you out of solid assets. We recently tackled the importance of diversification on this podcast episode.
明智多元化：將您的投資分散在多種資產和市場上，以保護您的投資。不僅僅考慮股票（或美國股票），還應該包括債券、國際股票、替代投資等，以防止市場波動和長期低迷期對您的投資組合造成損害。我們最近在這個播客節目中探討了多元化的重要性。

Enduring Active Strategies: Understand that with strategies like value investing or other active investment strategies like factor investing approaches, deviations from benchmark returns are expected. Be prepared for these variances and ensure they align with your investment goals.
持久的主動策略：了解價值投資等主動投資策略或因子投資方法等策略，預計會有與基準回報的偏差。為這些變動做好準備，確保它們與您的投資目標相符。

Understand History & Market Returns: Some of the very best returns come after periods of declines. This is one the areas where patience really pays off. If you invest in the market or investment strategies and you see losses on your investments, the key is not getting shaken out. By the time the losses are material, that likely means the worst of the downturn it is probably already behind you. In a recent discussion with value investor Steve Romick we had on our Excess Returns podcast, he explains how he approached investing during the COVID crash and what he has learned in investing over time.
了解歷史與市場回報：一些最好的回報往往出現在下跌期之後。這是耐心真正能帶來回報的領域之一。如果你在市場或投資策略上投資，並且看到你的投資出現虧損，關鍵是不要被搖動。當虧損變得實質時，很可能最糟糕的下滑已經過去了。在我們的《超額回報》播客中，我們最近與價值投資者史蒂夫·羅米克進行了一次討論，他解釋了他在COVID崩盤期間的投資方式以及他多年來所學到的投資經驗。

Take the Long-Term View: Markets will fluctuate; it’s their nature. By keeping a long-term perspective, you can see beyond temporary downturns and focus on the broader horizon of growth opportunities and letting your money and wealth compound over time.
採取長期觀點：市場將會波動，這是它們的本質。透過保持長期的觀點，你可以超越暫時的下滑，專注於更廣闊的成長機會，讓你的金錢和財富隨著時間累積。

As Warren Buffett once said, “The stock market is a device to transfer money from the ‘impatient’ to the ‘patient’.”
正如沃倫·巴菲特曾經說過的那樣：“股市是一個將錢從『急躁者』轉移到『耐心者』的工具。”

原文網址:

https://blog.validea.com/the-long-game-why-patience-and-perspective-matter-in-investing/