通貨膨脹為何趨緩，為何沒有更多下降？| CNN商業

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Ahead of May’s closely watched Consumer Price Index, set to be released Tuesday morning, economists are expecting yet another month of smaller price increases. 在即將公佈的五月消費者物價指數之前，經濟學家預期價格上漲幅度將再次縮小。這一指數將於星期二上午公佈。

The consensus among economists polled by Refinitiv is that prices rose by 4.1% last month compared to a year ago. If those predictions are correct, that would mark a significant decline from April, when annual inflation was 4.9%. It would also mean that inflation is about half what it was a year ago. Refinitiv 調查的經濟學家普遍認為，上個月的物價比一年前上漲了4.1%。如果這些預測正確，這將標誌著自四月份以來的顯著下降，當時年度通脹率為4.9%。這也意味著通脹率比一年前降低了一半。

The slowdown in inflation occurred in conjunction with the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign, which began in March 2022. But the rate hikes haven’t prevented more inflationary pressures from seeping into the economy. 通脹減緩是在聯邦儲備委員會於2022年3月開始加息運動的同時發生的。但加息並未阻止更多的通脹壓力滲入經濟。

In turn, inflation over the past year has been a game of give-and-take. Here’s where some of that giving and taking is happening: 反之，過去一年的通脹一直是一場讓與取的遊戲。以下是一些讓與和取得發生的地方：

Price increases for services like dry cleaning, haircuts and transportation have been one of the top contributors to overall inflation this year and last. But the magnitude of their contribution has drastically increased. 像乾洗、理髮和交通等服務的價格上漲一直是今年和去年整體通脹的主要貢獻因素之一。但它們的貢獻程度已經大幅增加。

The 5.4% 12-month increase in the cost of services last April accounted for 40% of inflation at the time, according to CPI data. 根據CPI數據，去年4月服務費用的12個月增長率達到5.4％，佔當時通脹的40％。

Since then, services have become more expensive, costing almost 7% more in April of this year compared to April 2022. That alone accounted for 84% of the inflation Americans experienced. 自那時起，服務費用變得更加昂貴，與2022年4月相比，今年4月的費用增加了近7%。這單一因素就佔了美國人所經歷通脹的84%。

Service inflation has grown in part because consumer behavior is still out of whack from the pandemic. When the US economy shut down, consumers couldn’t spend money on many services. When it reopened, consumers jumped at the opportunity to finally enjoy services and experiences like dining out, traveling and getting their hair styled. 服務業通脹的部分原因是因為消費者的行為仍受到疫情的影響。當美國經濟關閉時，消費者無法在許多服務上花費金錢。當經濟重新開放時，消費者迫不及待地享受服務和體驗，例如外出用餐、旅遊和理髮等。

Firms scrambled to hire more workers and, as a result, had to raise wages. That helped fuel more inflation since it meant workers had more money to spend. 公司急於聘請更多員工，因此不得不提高工資。這有助於推動更多的通脹，因為這意味著工人有更多的錢可以花費。

“Wage growth is still a big problem,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said recently. Pantheon Macroeconomics的首席經濟學家Ian Shepherdson最近表示：“工資增長仍然是一個大問題。”

A year ago, the top contributors to overall inflation behind services were housing and energy, which accounted for 33% and 25% of the annual price increases across the economy, respectively. 一年前，服務業通脹的主要貢獻者是住房和能源，分別佔整個經濟年度物價上漲的33％和25％。

No individual spending category accounted for more than 40% of overall inflation last year. But there were more categories that collectively were pushing inflation higher. 去年沒有任何一個個人消費類別佔整體通脹的40%以上。但有更多的類別共同推高了通脹水平。

Lately, inflation is being primarily driven by fewer categories. For instance, the percentage of housing expenses that contributed to overall inflation nearly doubled to 64% from 33% a year ago. The effect of food and beverage price increases also grew. 最近，通脹主要是由較少的類別所驅動。例如，住房費用對整體通脹的貢獻率從一年前的33%增加到了64%。食品和飲料價格上漲的影響也在增加。

In addition to the Fed’s rate hikes, falling gas prices are a big reason why inflation cooled from a year ago. 除了美聯儲的加息外，油價下跌也是通脹從去年開始降溫的主要原因。

Around this time last year, gas prices were up 44% compared to 2021. That accounted for 19% of overall inflation last April. But in the latest CPI report, gas prices were down 12% from a year ago. That helped lower inflation overall. 去年的這個時候，汽油價格比2021年上漲了44％，佔去年4月整體通脹的19％。但在最新的CPI報告中，汽油價格比一年前下降了12％。這有助於降低整體通脹。

新聞來源: CNN (#國際新聞)

原文網址:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/12/economy/inflation-cooling-cpi/index.html