Snowflake(SNOW)公布
2022Q4財報後,執筆當下盤前跌7%,留意到有些評論將問題歸咎於SNOW基於客戶消費量的商業模式,讓業務起伏較大。
SNOW與NET的比較
不過,我自己把SNOW的Q4財報數據都整理一遍後,並沒有覺得SNOW的表現有特別不好。如果拿財報後大漲的NET來比較的話,雖然NET確實稍好一些,但其實SNOW也並不差。實際來比一下:
NET總營收由Q3的年增47%放緩到Q4的42%,預計今年全年增長38%。
GAAP營業利潤率虧損由負18.1%,略為擴大到負18.5%。
Non-GAAP operations margin略為由5.8%增加到6.1%。
營業現金流流入78M,是全年表現最佳一季,同時帳上現金連續兩個季度增加。
如果調SNOW的數據:
以SNOW核心的Product revenue來看,營收年增率由2022Q3的67%放緩到Q4的54%,預計今年全年增長40%。
GAAP營業利潤率虧損由負37%,擴大到本季的負41%。
Non-GAAP operations margin由上一季的8%略為收縮到6%。
營業現金流流入217M,非常強勁,帳上現金(Cash and cash equivalents + Short-term investments)突破40億美元。
兩者硬要比的話,SNOW的營收放緩幅度比NET略大一些,但最終都預計本年能實現40%上下的營收年增率。
NET的營業利潤季並沒有明顯的改善,而本季SNOW則較Q3略有倒退,但Q4的表現仍然比Q2好。而且,SNOW管理層
展望2023年能夠較2022年持續改善:
And we think we're adding at the appropriate pace based on what we're seeing in the business today. As I said, where most companies are cutting, we added 1,900 people last year, net, and we will add over 1,000 people this year while still generating improvement in operating margin and having very good free cash flow next year again.
SNOW本季的現金流表現更是異常強勁,令管理層決定在未來2年啟動20億美元的股票回購計劃。
I would also like to announce that our Board of Directors has authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $2 billion over the next 2 years. This program reflects our conviction in the business and allows us to use our expected free cash flow to manage dilution over this period. Our share count guidance does not include the impact from the stock repurchase.
為什麼是20億美元呢?因為管理層覺得目前公司帳上現金已經足夠多,而他們預計未來兩年,SNOW的業務可以產生20億美元左右的現金,故他們計劃將未來兩年業務產生的現金用在股票回購,以中和股票稀釋的問題。
And I'm not hearing our engineering leaders claim they need more people. And it's not growth at all costs, this company. Yes, we are a growth company, but it's efficient growth as well, too, and we'll continue to do that. And we expect we're going to generate close to $2 billion over the next 2 years. And given the $5.1 billion we have, we think it'd be great to manage dilution through that. And we still have the opportunity, if we find great candidates, to hire faster if we so choose.
綜合看營收、盈利和現金流的話,我覺得SNOW的表現並沒有比NET差太多。
基於客戶消費量的商業模式
當然,基於客戶消費量的起伏問題確實存在,但我看了管理層的敘述後,並不覺得是太大的問題。市場比較關注管理層提到的以下兩段話: